Monday, June 11, 2012

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; USD/JPY; AUD/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/USD - Blue wave 4 needed on last rally to 1.2671, ideally we should now see a break below support at 1.2434 to confirm that wave 4 is done and blue wave 5 down towards 1.1994 is under way.
 USD/JPY - There is a possibility, that minor wave ii is already done a wave iii towards at least 81.23 is under way. A break above resistance at 79.78 will be the first indication that wave iii is under way.

 AUD/USD - Is have been asked how I find the extension target of wave iii at 0.9449. What I do is calculate the length of wave i from 1.0856 to 1.0221 = 6.35 I then multiply 6.35 by 1.618, which gives me a sum of 10.27, which I then subtract from the high of wave ii at 1.0474, which gives me a target of 0.9447 to be precis. Normally I just let my charting system do it for me and the can be a minor difference between the to outcomes, but this is not an exact science, so use the calculation as a possible target. There is also the possibility, that wave iii extends more than 1.618 times wave i as it could extend to 2 times wave i or even further to 2.618; 3.0; 3.618 or 4.236 times wave i. There is no way telling which extension target is the correct one.

We most likely have seen red wave iv end at 1.0008 and should expect a break below 0.9817 as first indication, that red wave v down to 0.9449 have begun.

 EUR/JPY - Wave 4 down most likely ended at 100.88 and we should soon see a break below 98.55 as first indication, that wave 5 down towards the ideal target at 94.58 is under way.
EUR/NZD - We have seen a break below 1.6259 telling us that we are in a expanded flat correction. Ideally we will see wave b end near 1.6225 for a rally in wave c towards the ideal target-area between 1.6533 - 1.6544, from where the next impulsive decline can begin.

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