EUR/USD - As I said yesterday, with the break below 1.2804 the corrective pattern shifted to a flat correction, where we needed a decline to 1.2775. We have seen a decline to 1.2767 and had I done my math correctly this is exactly the figure I would have calculated. At 1.2767 wave Y is equal to wave W. However It looks like we need just one more new low, before the bottom is finally in place here. We don't have to break below 1.2767 with more than a few pips to end this wave and start a new rally. A break above 1.2842 will be the first indication, that a bottom is in place and the new rally is under way.
GBP/USD - With a decline to 1.5956 the downside potential has more than been fulfilled here. Here we need a break above 1.6039 to get the first good indication, that the bottom is in place and that a new rally towards 1.6175 is under way.
At no point should we see a break below 1.5913 as that would change the bigger picture.
EUR/JPY - Is working its way lower and the first target is still at 101.45 and likely even 101.04 before a more decent correction should be seen. The long term target is still 99.35.
Resistance is now at 102.75 and important resistance at 103.34 and break above the later will weaken the downside pressure considerably and could easily cause a new rally higher through 103.99.
EUR/NZD - Is getting awful close to the invalidation point at 1.5453. Under the Elliott wave Principle wave ii is allowed to correct 100% of wave i, but it can't break below the start of wave i with just one pip as that would force a recount of the structure. If we break below 1.5453 (still not my favorite scenario) the hole corrective structure from the wave 1 top at 1.5905 shifts to an expanded flat correction with an ideal target at 1.5300. However, if 1.5453 protects the downside for a break above 1.5569 we have had the first good indication that a new large rally is under way. although it will take a break above 1.5836 to confirm the bottom and the new rally.
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