Thursday, November 29, 2012

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY - With the break above the top at 107.13 we have two possible scenarios. The more bearish one is, that an expanded flat correction is building. The bullish scenario is, that wave iii already is well under way. If we are looking at an expanded flat correction we should see a rally higher towards the 107.75 - 107.77 area, from where a powerful decline should set in for a move down to 104.66. However, if wave iii has indeed begun, then resistance at 107.77 should be no problem to break for a continuation higher towards 108.66 and even higher longer term. As the risk is being in wave iii I will rather go with the bullish scenario, than missing the most powerful rally in a impulsive sequence. 

EUR/NZD - We have just seen the minor impulsive rally from 1.5679, which is the first clue, that wave three is under way. We already know, that wave three will be an extended wave as we have seen a series of waves one's and two's. Therefore we should look for a very powerful rally once we break above important resistance at 1.5836. However, before we will see the break above 1.5836 we should see a minor correction towards 1.5766 and maybe even down to the 1.5732 - 1.5749 area before wave three really takes over. A clear break above 1.5836 will call for a continuation higher towards 1.6059 as the next major resistance, but longer term we are expecting much higher levels:

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