Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 131.56

R2: 131.20

R1: 131.03

Current spot: 130.88

S1: 130.63

S2: 130.21

S3: 129.90

Technical Summary:

Well once again we saw a break above resistance at 131.01, more and more evidence is pointing towards the triangle as the preferred count. That means we should see a continuation higher towards strong resistance near 132.00 to end wave d and then one last decline towards 129.98 and maybe even down to 129.50 before wave e of the triangle is in place. However, once wave e of the triangle is done, we can expect a new very powerful rally higher towards 170.00, but for now we have to concentrate on getting this triangle finished.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 171.53

R2: 171.00

R1: 170.74

Current spot: 170.47

S1: 170.00

S2: 1.6967

S3: 1.6934

Technical Summary:

I'm still looking for a top of wave i near 171.00 and we should be ready for the first sizable set-back since this rally took of from 1.6325. The ideal target for this wave ii correction of wave i will be at the 38.2% retracement target at 1.6804. That said, we must remember that the corrections during wave i has been sub-normal and therefore we will have to monitor the coming wave ii closely, but for now let's focus on getting the top of wave i in place near 1.7100 and then where we can expect wave ii to end.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 132.07

R2: 131.55

R1: 131.01 - Invalidation point of the bearish count

Current spot: 130.75

S1: 130.52

S2: 130.33

S3: 129.90  

Technical Summary:

I'm still looking for an impulsive decline to develop any time now. Short term I'm looking for important resistance at 131.01 to protect the upside for a break below 130.33 and more importantly a break below 129.90, which confirms a continuation lower towards 128.17 and maybe even low. However, a break above important support at 131.01 will invalidate my bearish count and call for a rally higher towards 132.00 and make the triangle count my preferred count.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.7100

R2: 1.7050

R1: 1.7006

Current spot: 1.6975

S1: 1.6925

S2: 1.6856

S3: 1.6835

Technical Summary:

We should be close to the top of wave i of the new impulsive rally which began at 1.6325. I expect the top to be set close to 1.7100 from where we should expect a correction towards at least 1.6915 and more likely down to 1.6804, where wave ii will have corrected 38.2% of wave i. If wave ii ends at 1.6804 it will still be a sub-normal correction for a wave ii and indicate underlying strength in this cross.

Longer term I'm looking for much higher levels.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 131.04

R2: 130.50

R1: 130.24

Current Spot: 130.20

S1: 130.08

S2: 129.87

S3: 129.42 

Technical Summary:

Even though we saw a rally past resistance at 130.72 yesterday, the high came in early at 131.04 in what looked like a expanded ending diagonal, because of the early high and the expanded ending diagonal, I will keep the above as my primary count. That said I still have two Alternate Count (see below) tailing just behind and the odds are almost equal between them. For the above scenario we will ideally see a decline towards support at 129.87 followed by a correction towards 130.50, maybe slightly higher towards 130.69 before the next powerful (impulsive) decline breaks below 129.87 for a continuation down towards 128.84.

However, the risk is a direct break above 130.50 and more importantly a break above 131.04, which would call for a continuation higher towards 132.00 and will make the triangle count the new preferred count.

 

 Alternate Count no. 1

Alternate Count no. 2

 

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6798

R2: 1.6759

R1: 1.6730

Current spot: 1.6701

S1: 1.6666

S2: 1.6629

S3: 1.6572

Technical Summary:

The decline only made to 1.6325 before a very powerful rally took over and with the break above important resistance at 1.6570 we must consider the major X- wave, that began from 171.13, as finished. Therefor I'm looking for a new powerful zig-zag combination higher towards 1.7643 and more likely towards 1.8463 longer term. Short term I'm looking for support at 1.6666 to protect the downside for the move higher towards 1.6798 and maybe even higher towards 1.6870.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

EUR/JPY

 

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 130.72

R2: 130.42

R1: 130.14

Current spot: 130.11

S1: 129.81

S2: 129.42

S3: 129.12

Technical Summary:

Since my last update, the price-action has unfolded less impulsive than expected. Therefore I have changed my short term count slightly. That means the count above is now my preferred count closely followed by two other possible counts (see below). 

My preferred count shows, that the decline from 132.74 unfolded in a new zig-zag decline which I have labled Y and we have most likely seen a new X-wave to 130.72, which now acts as important resistance, which I expect will protect the upside for a break below 129.81 and more importantly a break below 129.42 calling for the final zig-zag lower toward strong support at 124.96 in a flat correction.

As can be seen my preferred count and the alternate count No. 1 is both calling for a move lower, while my alternate count No. 2 is calling for a break above 130.72 towards 132.00 to end wave d of a triangle. 



 

Alternate Count No. 1

 Alternate Count No. 2

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6472

R2: 1.6455

R1: 1.6432

Current Spot: 1.6404

S1: 1.6392

S2: 1.6329

S3: 1.6277

Technical Summary:

Since my last update the price-action has been pretty much as expected. I'm still looking for a decline closer to support at 1.6225 and maybe just below, but once this C-wave is over we should be looking for a new impulsive rally higher. 

Short term I expect minor resistance at 1.6472 will protect the upside for a break below 1.6392 for a continuation towards support at 1.6329 and at 1.6277 before the ideal target near 1.6225. Only a break above strong resistance at 1.6572 will indicate that a bottom is already in place and call for the next impulsive rally higher towards 1.7153 and above.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 130.16

R2: 129.72

R1: 129.20

Current Sport: 129.05

S1: 128.83

S2: 128.21

S3: 127.62

Technical Summary:

After a push towards 129.71, we should be ready for the next impulsive decline towards 126.06 and our ideal target for wave C of this flat correction near 124.96. Short term I expect minor resistance at 129.20 to protect the upside for a break below 128.83 and more importantly a break below 128.21, which confirms, that the next impulsive decline towards 126.06 is developing. A break above 129.20 will confuse the picture, but only a break above 129.46 will force a short term re-count.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6946

R2: 1.6872

R1: 1.6796

Current Spot: 1.6743

S1: 1.6674

S2: 1.6623

S3: 1.6572

Technical Summary:

I'm looking for the C-wave of a major flat correction to develop towards strong support at 1.6225. Short term I expect minor resistance at 1.6796 to protect the upside for a break below 1.6703 and more importantly a break below 1.6673, which confirms the next impulsive decline towards 1.6414. However, if resistance at 1.6796 breaks it will delay the downside pressure for a move slightly higher towards 1.6872, but under no circumstance can a break above 1.6946 be allowed as that would invalidate this bearish count.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 129.80

R2: 129.60

R1: 129.33

Current Spot: 129.07

S1: 128.65

S2: 128.24

S3: 127.62

Technical Summary:

We saw the expected decline to the minimum target at 128.54 yesterday. As wave i of blue wave iii and wave iii of blue wave iii is equal in length we should expect wave v of blue wave iii to be extended and that would call for a decline towards 126.06.
Short term I will be looking for resistance at 129.33 to protect the upside for a break below minor support at 128.65, which will be the first good indication that the next impulsive decline lower is developing and a break below 128.41 will confirm the decline. towards 126.06.
However, if we break above 129.33 the downside pressure will be delayed for a push towards 129.60 before we should expect renewed downside pressure.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6946

R2: 1.6872

R1: 1.6796

Current Spot: 1.6760

S1: 1.6718

S2: 1.6656

S3: 1.6623

Technical Summary:

The break below the important support at 1.6771 yesterday invalidated my bullish Count and tells us, that the rally of the 1.6225 low is only a B-wave in a flat correction. Therefore we will have to change our focus from the upside towards the downside until this ongoing correction is over.
I'm now looking for resistance at 1.6796 to protect the upside for a break below 1.6718, which will be the first good indication, that we can expect the impulsive decline lower towards at least 1.6623 and likely even deeper towards 1.6456.
Short term a break above 1.6799 will confuse the Picture, but only a break above 1.6872 will question the bigger Picture.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 130.11

R2: 129.88

R1: 129.69

Current Spot: 129.50

S1: 129.14

S2: 128.89

S3: 128.54

Technical Summary:

The correction I expected yesterday became slightly bigger, than first anticipated. I expected a correction towards 130.40, but the high came in at 130.73. However, the decline from 131.97 to 129.80 was a clear five wave pattern (wave i of blue wave iii) which called for more downside action once the correction was over (wave ii of blue wave iii). We have now entered the part of the decline from 131.97, which is likely to be the strongest. I'm looking for a decline to at least 128.54, but this decline will likely extend lower towards 127.20 before wave iii of blue wave iii is over. Short term we are looking for resistance at 129.69 and maybe 129.86 to protect the upside for a break below 129.14 towards 128.54.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6987

R2: 1.6946

R1: 1.6883

Current Spot: 1.6848

S1: 1.6799

S2: 1.6771 (top of blue wave i - Break invalidates the bullish count)

S3: 1.6720

Technical Summary:

I'm still looking for important support at 1.6771 (top of blue wave i) to protect the downside for a break above 1.6883 and more important a break above 1.6946, which confirms that blue wave iv is over and that blue wave v higher is developing for a rally towards at least 1.7166. Longer term I'm looking for a test of 1.7326 as the target for wave iii. However, if important support at 1.6771 is taken out, that would invalidate our bullish count and call for a new decline towards 1.6225 in a flat correction.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

I have added some short term support and resistance levels for the day. Tell me if you think it's an improvement or not - Thank you!

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 130.79

R2: 130.40

R1: 130.25

Current Spot: 129.89

S1: 129.79

S2: 129.32

S1: 128.89

 

Technical Summary:

The decline from 131.98 broken through strong support at 130.40, without any trouble and I'm now looking for minor resistance at 130.25  or maybe resistance at 130.40 to protect the upside for the next part of the decline towards 128.89. However, the target for this decline lays at 126.89, where blue wave iii will be 1.618 times longer than blue wave i. Longer term I'm looking for a decline to strong support at 124.96 in a flat correction from the 133.81 high.
 

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.7047

R2: 1.6972

R1: 1.6942

Current Spot: 1.6929

S1: 1.6857

S2: 1.6813

S3: 1.6771

Technical Summary:

The correction from the 1.7153 high has been deeper than expected, but as long as support at 1.6771 (the high of blue wave i) stays intact I will be looking for the next powerful rally higher soon. In fact I expect that support at 1.6813 will protect the downside for a break above 1.6972 and more importantly a break above 1.7023 which confirms, that a new impulsive rally above 1.7153 is developing. I'm still looking at 1.7326 as the first target for this rally. That said we will have to be alert to a break below the top of blue wave i at 1.6771. If that happens, this rally can not be impulsive and we should expect a new decline to 1.6225 in a flat correction.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

It finally seems as blue wave ii have come to an end. Short term I'm looking for resistance at 131.55 to protect the upside for a break below 131.07, which will confirm a continuation lower towards strong support at 130.40. However if my count is correct support at 130.40 would likely seem like butter and prices would cut through it like a warm knife. Long term I'm looking for re-test of strong support at 124.96 in a flat correction. We might fall even more, but for now let's concentrate on getting down to 124.96. The risk is a break above 131.55 which would make the decline from 131.98 look like a correction a call for a new test of this resistance. 

EUR/NZD

We have seen the expected rally higher and have both broken the former high at 171.13 and broken above the base channel resistance-line, we should see wave iii accelerate towards the upside for a test of my first target at 1.7326. However we could easily see this rally extend further and if this is the case, we should be looking for 1.7886 as the next major target. Support is now found at 1.7028 and again at 1.6987, but we should expect corrections to be sub-normal in wave iii.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

We have seen the expected rally higher in a complex correction in blue wave ii. The correction went a little higher than I expected, as we have seen a high at 131.56. However, we should soon begin to see renewed downside pressure for a break below support at 131.12 and more importantly a break below support at 130.79, which confirms, that blue wave ii is over and blue wave iii lower has taken over for a decline towards at least 1.2607 and maybe even lower. Longer term I'm looking for a decline towards very strong support at 124.96 and if this support breaks I will be looking for a continuation lower towards 118.73.

EUR/NZD

We should be in the very early parts of red wave iii higher. Red wave iii is most likely to become an extended wave and should at least reach 1.7326, but could well extend much further, which only time will tell. Short term I'm looking for support at 1.6693 to protect the downside for a break above resistance at 1.6738 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.6790, which will confirm the next powerful rally higher towards 1.7045. However, if support at 1.6693 should be broken, the downside should be limited and only a break below 1.6600 will invalidate my bullish Count.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

The blue wave ii correction turned out to be an expanded flat correction as we saw the low of wave b at 129.33 (below the low of wave a) and the high of wave c at 130.79 (above the top of wave a). As long as support at 129.93 and more importantly support at 129.33 protects the downside, the correction could be more complex, than we already has seen. However, at this point I do not expect a more complex correction and will be looking for signs that blue wave iii is developing. The first sign will be a break below 129.93 and confirmation upon a break below 129.33, which will indicate that blue wave iii is indeed developing. The first target for blue wave iii will be at 126.07, where blue wave iii will be 1.618 times blue wave i. After an expanded flat correction we should always expect an extended impulsive wave to follow. As said, the risk is a more complex wave ii correction, which will be the case if support at 129.93 protects the downside for a break above 130.79, which would call for a move higher towards 131.17 - 131.36, but that is not my preferred count at this point.

EUR/NZD

We only saw the minimum correction to 1.6572 before the next rally pushed above the top of red wave i and confirmed that red wave iii is developing. Ideally support at 1.6634 now will protect the downside for a break above 1.6722 indicating the next powerful rally higher toward at least 1.6882 and long term much higher towards 1.7326. However, if support at 1.6634 breaks, then we will have consider the rally of the 1.6572 low as part of an complex correction and look for a continuation down to at least 1.6572 and likely lower towards 1.6477 before red wave iii will be ready to take over.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

EUR/JPY

We are still in wave ii of c and I do expect it to move higher towards 131.17, where wave ii will have corrected 50% of wave i, but I would not be surprised to see a 61.8% correction of wave i, which would call for a rally towards 131.54, before wave iii takes over for a powerful decline. I will expect wave iii of c to be an extended wave and that would call for a decline towards 126.07 if a 50% correction turns out to be enough. Short term a break above 130.31 will indicate, that wave c of the correction is under way towards 131.17 and maybe 131.54. Only a direct break below 129.59 will indicate, that wave iii is already has taken over.

EUR/NZD

With an almost perfect test of strong resistance at 1.6686 (the high has been 1.6674) I think that a correction of this red wave i towards 1.6577 and likely deeper towards 1.6543 would be appropriate. However I can make a case, where we will not see a correction of that magnitude and if this is the case we will see a direct break above 1.6649 and more importantly a break above 1.6686 calling for a continuation higher towards 1.6762 and 1.6818 on the way towards 1.7326, which I believe will be the target for black wave iii.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

We saw the end of minor wave five at exactly 129.59, which was my first target. The rally of the low at 129.59 indicates, that wave i of c is over and that wave ii is developing. It is most likely that this wave ii will retrace a great part of wave i, so I would expect to see a correction of 61.8% of wave i, which will take us to 131.54 before wave ii might be over. However, as second waves are allowed to correct all of wave the first wave we could see a move closer to the 132.74 top, but under no circumstances can a break above the start of wave i at 132.74 be allowed. Once this ongoing wave ii is done I will be looking after a powerful decline in wave iii, but first let's concentrate on wave ii higher.

EUR/NZD

With the break above 1.6486 we had confirmation, that a bottom is in place for a new impulsive rally higher. To confirm, that we have seen an important low for wave ii I would like to see a break above strong resistance at 1.6686 as well, as that will confirm continuation higher towards 1.6818 and 171.13. Short term I'm looking for support at 1.6527 and important support at 1.6482, which ideally protect the downside for the rally towards 1.6686 and higher.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

With the break below important support we had the final confirmation we needed, that wave b did finish at 132.74 and wave c lower now is developing. Wave c is an impulsive, that means wave c can be broken down in five smaller waves. Three in the direction of the trend, which is down, and two waves against the trend, which would mean towards the upside in this case. We are currently about to end the first impulsive wave down from 132.74. The first target for this wave i is at 129.59 followed by 129.27 and 128.96. We believe the most likely target is near 129.27, but only time will tell. Once this minor wave i of c is over we should expect a correction towards 130.99 in wave ii before the next impulsive decline lower. 

EUR/NZD

I'm still looking for confirmation, that wave ii is over and wave iii higher is ready to take over. The first indication of wave ii being over will be a break above 1.6454 and more importantly a break above 1.6486, which will confirm a new impulsive rally above 1.6686 is developing. However, as long as resistance at 1.6454 has not been broken, we must accept the possibility of a deeper wave ii down towards support at 1.6349 and maybe even down to 1.6339, but that outcome is less likely. 

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

Minor support at 131.37 has been broken too and is yet an other sign of weakness. We still need a break below support at 130.76 to confirm, that wave b has finished and wave c taken over for a impulsive decline towards at least 124.96 and possibly even lower. Short term we will now find resistance at 131.44 and more importantly at 132.05 and only a break above the later will ease the downside pressure and call for a new rally higher towards 132.74 and maybe even 133.81, but that option seems as a low odds possibility. Therefore we should be prepared for a break below support at 130.76 rather than a move higher.

EUR/NZD

As we broke below important support at 1.6475 and even more important support at 1.6427 I have been forced to change my count. My preferred count is now, that wave ii still is in motion from the 1.6798 high. As we already is way past the 61.8% corrective target we will be looking for support at the Harmonic level at 70.7% (Gann target), which comes in at 1.6393 and again at the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 1.6349. However, it should be remembered, that second waves are allowed to correct 100% of the first wave, but it can never ever break below the start of the first wave, which in this case will be below 1.6225. However I doubt that this wave ii correction will be that deep. That said, I will be looking for a possible bottom at 1.6393 for a break above 1.6487, which will be the first indication, that wave ii could be over. However, we will need a break above 1.6686 to confirm the bottom for a continuation higher towards 1.6798 and higher in wave iii.