Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

EUR/JPY

We are still in wave ii of c and I do expect it to move higher towards 131.17, where wave ii will have corrected 50% of wave i, but I would not be surprised to see a 61.8% correction of wave i, which would call for a rally towards 131.54, before wave iii takes over for a powerful decline. I will expect wave iii of c to be an extended wave and that would call for a decline towards 126.07 if a 50% correction turns out to be enough. Short term a break above 130.31 will indicate, that wave c of the correction is under way towards 131.17 and maybe 131.54. Only a direct break below 129.59 will indicate, that wave iii is already has taken over.

EUR/NZD

With an almost perfect test of strong resistance at 1.6686 (the high has been 1.6674) I think that a correction of this red wave i towards 1.6577 and likely deeper towards 1.6543 would be appropriate. However I can make a case, where we will not see a correction of that magnitude and if this is the case we will see a direct break above 1.6649 and more importantly a break above 1.6686 calling for a continuation higher towards 1.6762 and 1.6818 on the way towards 1.7326, which I believe will be the target for black wave iii.

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