Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

We have been locked in a price range between 130.71 and 132.27 since late Friday. However, I'm still looking for a continuation higher towards the next minor resistance at 132.78 and possibly higher towards my ideal target near the former high at 133.81. That said, I regard this rally as part of a complex flat correction and once this rally is over we should see an impulsive decline towards at least 124.96 and possibly even lower. Short term support at 130.72 should protect the downside, but we will need a break below strong support at 129.67 to confirm, that this b-wave rally is over and wave c lower is developing.

EUR/NZD

I'm looking for a powerful rally to take off any time now. A clear break above 1.6603 open up the upside for a impulsive rally higher towards 1.7364, where wave iii will be 1.618 times longer than wave i. However, this rally could become even more extended and rally higher towards 1.7929, but only time will tell. Short term I'm looking for minor support at 1.6552 to protect the downside for the break above 1.6603, but even if we does see a break below 1.6552 the downside should be limited and at no point should we break below 1.6476 as that would delay the expected rally higher.

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