Thursday, July 25, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

Minor support at 131.37 has been broken too and is yet an other sign of weakness. We still need a break below support at 130.76 to confirm, that wave b has finished and wave c taken over for a impulsive decline towards at least 124.96 and possibly even lower. Short term we will now find resistance at 131.44 and more importantly at 132.05 and only a break above the later will ease the downside pressure and call for a new rally higher towards 132.74 and maybe even 133.81, but that option seems as a low odds possibility. Therefore we should be prepared for a break below support at 130.76 rather than a move higher.

EUR/NZD

As we broke below important support at 1.6475 and even more important support at 1.6427 I have been forced to change my count. My preferred count is now, that wave ii still is in motion from the 1.6798 high. As we already is way past the 61.8% corrective target we will be looking for support at the Harmonic level at 70.7% (Gann target), which comes in at 1.6393 and again at the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 1.6349. However, it should be remembered, that second waves are allowed to correct 100% of the first wave, but it can never ever break below the start of the first wave, which in this case will be below 1.6225. However I doubt that this wave ii correction will be that deep. That said, I will be looking for a possible bottom at 1.6393 for a break above 1.6487, which will be the first indication, that wave ii could be over. However, we will need a break above 1.6686 to confirm the bottom for a continuation higher towards 1.6798 and higher in wave iii.

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