Thursday, July 11, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

We did see resistance at 129.91 protect the upside for a break below 128.98, but there was no real follow through. However, something will have to happen soon. As we are moving closer to the apex of two converging lines and one of them must giver away for the next powerful move. I still think, that this next powerful move will be to the downside, for a move down to the strong support at 124.96 and likely even lower. That said, we must stay alert to a break above 130.43 and more importantly a break above 130.56 as that would call for a rally back to the 133.81 high in a very complex correction.


EUR/NZD

With a low at 1.6441 (just below my expected support at 1.6445) and the following clear break above the resistance line of the falling channel from the 1.7113 higher, we had the confirmation we needed to say, that the triple zig-zag correction was over. We should now turn our focus towards the upside again for the next big rally higher. Short term I'm looking for support at 1.6620 and we might just see a move lower to 1.6577, before the next impulsive rally higher towards 1.7049 as the next target, followed by a break above the former high at 1.7113. My long term count calls for a rally towards at least 1.8700 and likely even higher towards 1.9570.

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