Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for September 12 - 2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 133.81
R2: 133.24
R1: 132.80
Current Spot: 132.59
S1: 132.34
S2: 131.95
S3: 131.68
Technical Summary:
The correction from 133.37 has become slightly deeper than would have been ideal, but it has by no means destroyed the bullish outlook, only a break below 131.84 will question the rally from 129.89. However with a low at 132.34, just one pip below my second support, we should be ready for the next rally higher towards 133.81 and 134.48. Short term a break above 132.80 will be the first good indication that the next rally higher is developing, while a break above 133.24 confirms, that the correction is over and move higher towards 133.81 is ongoing.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 1.6565
R2: 1.6503
R1: 1.6450
Current Spot: 1.6392
S1: 1.6325
S2: 1.6264
S1: 1.6225
Technical Summary:
This is exactly what makes correction difficult to handle. Second waves are allowed to correct all of the first wave, but can never ever break below the starting point of the first wave. With a low at 1.6335 we have seen an almost 100% retracement of wave i, so it is make or break it time. As long as support at 1.6325 protect the downside I will be looking for a break above 1.6452 and more importantly a break above 1.6565 that will confirm, that wave ii finally found its bottom and wave iii can take over for a very powerful rally. As you can see on the EWO indicator we now have the possibility of both a bullish hidden divergence and a normal bullish divergence and if these divergences is confirmed by the break above 1.6565 we should be looking for a very powerful rally higher. However the risk is of cause a break break below 1.6325, which shifts the picture to my alternate count and calls for a decline towards 1.6117 before we can expect a new move higher.
 

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