Nguyen asked me for my long term Count on EUR/NZD, so here we go...
Since 1992 EUR/NZD have move lower in a major flat correction and a well defined channel.
Wave A took 5 years from 1992 to 1997(Fibonacci number) while wave B took 3 years from 2009 to 2012 (also a Fibonacci number).
Wave C is equal to wave A within just 45 small pips (amazing). The last part of the decline from 1.9571 is overlapping and looks like an ending diagonal and normally we should expect a return to the start of the ending diagonal once it's finished and that would call for a rally higher towards 1.9571 over the coming years.
Could we see a new low below 1.4966? Yes of cause, but it will be short lived and might only make it to 1.4921 before the next rally sets in. This scenario is by no way my preferred outcome, but at this point it can't be ruled out.
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