Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for September 4 - 2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 131.95
R2: 131.60
R1: 131.28
Current Spot: 131.12
S1: 130.94
S2: 130.70
S3: 130.56
Technical Summary:
I'm still looking for a rally towards 131.95 as the most likely target for this first impulsive rally of the 129.30 low. The short term correction I expected yesterday turned out to be a bit more complex, but it should just be a matter of time now, before we see a break above 131.28 and more importantly a break above 131.40 to confirm that the last minor wave of this first impulsive rally is developing. The most likely target is at 131.95, but it could extend towards 132.28 and even 132.59 before we should see a minor correction in wave ii towards 130.95.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 1.7071
R2: 1.6995
R1: 1.6933 (Important short term resistance)
Current Spot: 1.6863
S1: 1.6829
S2: 1.6801 (Recent low)
S3: 1.6762  
Technical Summary:
The wave path I expected yesterday took on a slightly different path as blue wave iii of red wave v (see the 15 minute chart below) extended more than expected and blue wave iv became an expanding triangle, that meant a deeper decline in wave v towards 1.6801. Short term we would like to see support at 1.6829 protect the downside for a break above minor, but important, resistance at 1.6933 as a break above here will be the first good indication, that wave ii is in place and wave iii higher towards 1.7274 and 1.8228 is developing. The risk is a break below 1.6801, that would delay the expected rally for a move closer to 1.6762 before up.
 

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