Elliott wave analysis of DJI; EUR/USD and Crude Oil

Dow Jones Industrial Index Monthly

Dow Jones Industrial Index Weekly 

Dow Jones Industrial Index

I'm still looking for one last decline closer to 14,551 before this first impulsive wave from the 15,658 comes to an end. Once this first downleg is in place we should be looking for a correction towards 15,241 before the next impulsive wave lower.That said we still need a break below important support at 14,551 to confirm, that wave D of the large expanding triangle is firmly in place and wave E has take over. This E wave will be a very deep decline and likely not end before it has reached 5,800. We are not taking 2013 or even 2014 here, but rather something like 2015 or maybe even early 2016 before this E wave is finally in place.

 

EUR/USD

 

 

We are still only in the very early parts of the possible wave 3 lower. I'm looking for a test of important support near 1.2850 and more importantly a test of support at 1,2745 and a break below here confirms a continuation lower towards 1.1879.

Ideally resistance at 1.3319 will protect the upside for a continuation lower, but only a break above 1.3452 will invalidate this Count and call for a continuation higher towards 1.44 and maybe closer to 1.4550 before down again.

 



Crude Oil

Is still on its way higher towards 120.84 as the next major target. However longer term I'm looking for a move even higher towards 126.87 before we should expect this rally to be over and renewed downside pressure to take over.
I regard this rally from the early 2009 low at 33.22 as part of a major correction and once this rally to 126.87 is over we should expect a major new decline to just below 33.22, but for now we should stay focused towards the upside for a run towards 120.84 at the next target.