Saturday, September 7, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD - Alternate count

EUR/NZD                                                             Courtesy of Jeff M

Today I would like to do something I would normally never do, but I think Jeff's chart deserves special treatment.

You all know, trying to figure out a bottom for the decline from 1.7274 has been more than a pain. It is here is think Jeff's chart could give us a helping hand, if we break below 1.6325.

Let's take it from the low at 1.5080:

Wave i went from 1.5080 to 1.5611.

Wave ii corrected a perfect 70.7% of wave i at 1.5236.

Wave iii rallied an almost perfect 3.618 times wave i to 1.7109 (the perfect 3.618 times wave i target would have been at 1.7157).

Wave iv became a very complex correction correcting between 38.2% - 50% of wave ii ending at 1.6395 (the 38.2% correction target of wave iii was at 1.6393)

Finally wave v rallied to 1.7153 just below the 38.2% target of the distance traveled from 1.5080 to 1.7109 added to the bottom of wave iv, which would have given an ideal target at 1.7168.

Since the wave v high at 1.7153 we have been in an expanding flat correction, where wave B ended above the starting point of wave A.

That Means we should be looking for wave C below the ending point of wave A and ideally wave C will have some Fibonacci relationship to wave A and that would leave us with the following targets for wave C:

1.236 X wave i = 1.6249

1.382 X wave i = 1.6128, which also is very close to the 50% correction target of wave 1 at 1.6117

1.618 X wave i = 1.5932, while the 61.8% correction target of wave 1 comes in at 1.5872

As we have a cluster in the 1.6117 - 1.6125 range I will think that would be the ideal target for this wave C


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