Sunday, August 25, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for August 26 - 2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 133.81
R2: 132.74
R1: 132.31
Current Spot: 132.07
S1: 131.68
S2: 131.22
S3: 130.85
Technical Summary:
Wave d of the triangle is now in place and I will be looking for the last decline as wave e. This expected e wave normally relates to the d-wave with some Fibonacci relationship, but e waves of triangles can be any of the corrective patterns we know, even triangles. However, once this e wave of the triangle is in place we should be looking for a new powerful rally higher towards 139.21 and longer term we are looking for a rally towards 170.00. That said for now we should concentrate on the e-wave, which ideally will decline to 130.18 and maybe deeper towards 129.65 before the next rally higher.


EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 1.7238
R2: 1.7182
R1: 1.7134
Current Spot: 1.7109
S1: 1.7066
S2: 1.7006
S3: 1.6935
Technical Summary:
We most likely saw the top of wave i on Friday with the test of 1.7197 and we should now expect a wave ii correction towards at least 1.6864, where wave ii will have corrected 38.2% of wave i. This is also where we saw wave four of one lessor degree and that is a very common target for second waves. That said it should be remembered, that second waves are allowed to correct all of the first wave, but it can never go beyond the start of wave one, which in this case would be at 1.6325. However, taking into consideration how powerful this wave i has been, we should not expect to much of wave ii. Longer term I'm looking for much higher levels in this cross with 181.33 being the next major long term target.

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