Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; GBP/USD; AUD/USD and NZD/USD

 WEEKLY

SLIGHTLY PREFERRED COUNT

ALTERNATE COUNT NO. 1

 

EUR/USD

 

In the larger Picture I still expect we ended wave e with the test of 1.3711 and we have seen wave 1 Down and either just have ended wave 2 or is close to end wave 2. To confirm the end of wave 2 we need a break below 1.3187.

 

The break above 1.3416 has forced a minor recount of my previous preferred count and the two count above represents my new preferred count and alternate count no. 1.

 

In my preferred count we have either ended wave 2 or is very close to end wave 2, but under no circumstance can we see a break above 1.3610. If a break above 1.3610 occurs this count is dead and the alternate count no. 1 becomes the preferred count.

 

The alternate count shows an expending triangle, which could be finished or we could still see a move higher in wave e towards 1.3700, but under no circumstances can a break above 1.3711 be allowed. If we do break above 1.3711, then wave e of the larger symmetric triangle can't have ended and a rally towards 1.4200 should be the outcome.

 

Common for both these counts is, that we need a break below 1.3187 to confirm that wave 3 lower is developing.



GBP/USD

 

My preferred Count is still, that we are in wave ii of 3 and soon should see a powerful decline towards at least 1.4200 and possibly lower. However, for this Count to stay valid under no circumstances can a break above 1.5752 be allowed. As a break above 1.5752 will break one of the Elliott Wave Principles Cardinal rules, that wave two can't break above the starting point of wave one. If we does see a break above 1.5752 it will not be a total change in the bigger Count, just that wave 2 still is unfolding and that wave b of 2 was an expanding flat correction.

 



AUD/USD

 

 

I'm still looking for much lower levels in AUD/USD and think, that we are in the early stages of wave iii of C lower. The above Count have worked well and I don't believe those counting the decline from 1.0583 as wave C and the decline from 1.1080 as complete. A break below 0.8845 will confirm my preferred count and call for a decline to at least 0.8468.

 

For my Count to stay valid resistance at 0.9318 will have to protect the upside. A break above 0.9318 will invalidate my Count, but it will not cause me to Count the decline from 1.1080 as finished.

 



NZD/USD

Here I'm also looking for a continuation lower towards 0.6560. That said we should be close to a bottom of wave i of 3 and should expect wave ii higher towards the 0.7962 - 0.8002 zone before the next  powerful decline takes over.
Short term a break above 0.7866 will confirm that wave ii of 3 is developing, but don't try to trade this correction as the decline has been very powerful and it's a warning, that the bears is strong.