EUR/USD - Blue wave b has extended and could see us a little lower towards 1.2166 before blue wave c takes over for a rally towards the 1.2522 - 1.2566 area. Once the rally from 1.2044 is over, I expect it will only mark the first part of a more complex correction.
USD/JPY - The structure finally begins to show some impulsive characters. That said it is still very early and a break above 79.41 is need to confirm, that the correction from 80.59 is over.
The risk is still a break below 77.65 that will invalidate my count.
GBP/USD - Here too does we see a possible impulsive structure. If the count above is right, then we should see a small lift higher towards 1.5584 in blue wave iv followed by a decline towards 1.5454 in blue wave v, which will mark red wave iii.
The risk is a break back above 1.5670 that will call for a new test of 1.5767 on the way higher towards 1.5905.
NZD/USD - With a high at 0.8142 just below the ideal target for this wave c of Y we should be ready for the next deep decline. That said we are only in the very early parts of, what might be a new decline, and I would like to see a break below 0.8060 before being more confident in calling the top. A break below support at 80.60 will call for a decline towards 0.7798 again.
EUR/JPY - The price-action since yesterday has been very shallow, which does open up for one more decline closer to 95.33, before blue wave ii is finally over, but from 95.33 or upon a direct break above 96.45 we should see the next rally higher towards the 100.63 - 100.73 area.
EUR/NZD - The bottoming process is still ongoing. With a new low at 1.5070 we still could see a decline towards 1.5045 before the bottom is finally in place. From 1.5045 or upon a break above 1.5225 we should see a new rally towards 1.5505 and only a break above here will confirm the bottom for a much higher rally towards the 1.5808 - 1.5885 area.
Dow Jones Industrial Index - The decline from 13,089.96 does lack impulsiveness, but we are only in the very beginning of wave 3 down, if the top is in place. The first wave of a new impulsive rally or decline is always the most difficult to read. We need a break below 12,821 and more importantly 12,762 to confirm the top for a break below 12.450 on the way towards at least 11,430.
However as long as support at 12,821 protects the upside we could see one last rally towards 13,170.
Gold - Even though we intra day broke slightly above 1,624.70 we never saw a close above here, which does open the possibility, that wave e and the B-wave triangle could be finished. However I slightly more prefer that the rally to 1,629.10 only marked the end of wave c and we should now see a decline towards the 1,570 area in wave d and then a final minor rally in wave e towards the 1.600 - 1.610 before the triangle finally is over and the next challenge of important support at 1,521 is seen.
Invalidation for this count is a break above 1,629.10
Crude Oil - Here I'm still looking for a break below 87.31 and more importantly 86.74 to confirm the next decline towards 82.47 and longer term a decline towards the 72.00 area.
A break above 90.30 will delay the decline for one more rally higher towards 91.48 before down.
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