Monday, August 27, 2012

Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD; DJI and Gold


 EUR/USD - We have seen a decline to 1.2481, but this does not constitute a break below 1.2482 and therefore it's still open whether we have seen the top with the test of 1.2589 or we do need one last new higher slightly higher.
That said looking at the larger picture there should be no doubt that we are in a clear downtrend and that we should soon see a new downside pressure below the red wave 3 low at 1.2040.
 USD/JPY - Here we should be more in doubt... It the count shown above valid? The jury is still out there, but as long as important support at 78.15 hasn't been broken to the downside I will keep the count above as my preferred count, but just 1 tick below 78.15 and a change to a more bearish count will take place.
 GBP/USD - Even though we have seen a slightly more convincing break below support at 1.5816 here we are not yet quite out of the woods. We could still one more rally higher but if we does I doubt it will be much above resistance at 1.5912. However a new break below 1.5792 and more importantly 1.5742 will close the case a call for wave 3 down below 1.5268.
 EUR/JPY - Ideally we have seen red wave 4 end at 96.97 and should soon see a break above 98.82 for a move higher towards 99.59 as the first possible target for red wave 5. At 99.59 red wave 5 will be 38.2% of the distance traveled from the bottom of red wave 1 to the top of red wave 3. If we break clearly above 99.59 the next target will be at 100.60 where red wave 5 will be 61.8% of red 1 through red wave 3. As long as we haven't broken above 99.18 we should not see a break below important support at 97.80 as that would break one of only three rules of the Elliott Wave Principle - The one which says, that wave one and wave four must not overlap each other.
 EUR/NZD - The best count here is, that we are in an expanded flat wave 2 correction, which calls for a decline towards 1.5142, which is both a 50% retracement of wave 1 and the bottom of wave iv of one lessor degree, which is a normal target for a correction. Once this correction is over we should see a new powerful rally in wave 3.
 Dow Jones Industrial Index - Ideally we should see wave ii correct to 13,193 before renewed downside pressure takes over for the next push lower towards at least 12,753, but likely we will see a much deeper decline towards 12,479.
Gold - Here we saw a tiny correction followed by a new move to 1,676.79 (the ideal target was at 1,676.44) and all we need now is a break below support at 1,662.40 to confirm that the correction from 1,526.80 is over and a new downside pressure towards important support at 1,521 has begun.

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