EUR/USD - Just keeps marching on higher. We can see a clear divergence on the indicator, but that just tells us that this move is loosing momentum and that we should expect a top soon, but will that be before the all important 1.3004 invalidation point? I think so, but if we break just one tick above resistance at 1.3004 my working count will be invalidate and a more bullish count adopted. That does not mean I will be overly bullish just that we will see EUR/USD move higher in a bigger correction from 1.2042.
That said a break below 1.2814 and more importantly 1.2754 will indicate that a top is in place and downside pressure will gain momentum for a decline towards strong support in the 1.2468 - 1.2500 area.
EUR/JPY - So we finally tested the ideal wave 3 target at 100.60. However looking at the short term reaction from 100.62 is looks like we need one more new high towards the 100.70 - 100.75 area, before the top is finally in place for a correction in black wave 4 towards 98.45 and likely even down to 97.98 in a complex correction (Remember Elliott's alternation principle - Wave 2 and 4 should alternate. If wave 2 is a simple and deep correction, then wave 4 should be shallow and complex and that's what we have here).
Short term a break below 100.29 will indicate that the top is in place.
EUR/NZD - With a test of 1.5633 we should be ready to explore the upside again for a move towards 1.5974, but the ideal target for this first impulsive wave is at 1.6200. However that should just be the first impulsive wave in a long row of impulsive rallies higher. Support at 1.5633 should now protect the downside for a break above 1.5760 and more importantly 1.5831 to confirm the next rally higher.
A break below 1.5633 will cause caution.
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