Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD and TLT



 EUR/USD - Is break out of the falling wedge to the upside and all we need now to confirm a bottom fro blue wave 4 is a break above 1.2971. Once minor resistance at 1.2971 is broken we should see a new rally higher towards the first possible target for blue wave 5 at 1.3227 and if broken clearly we should see a continuation higher towards 1.3472.
 EUR/JPY - Here too we have a falling wedge, which is on the wedge to be broken to the upside. Here we need a break above 101.05 to confirm the bottom, but once resistance at 101.05 is broken we should see wave 5 towards the first possible target at 104.54 and likely even higher towards the next target at 105.69.
 EUR/NZD - This cross has once again surprised with the break below 1.5569, which does call for an even deeper correction towards the 50% retracement target of wave 1 at 1.5434 and we could even see a move towards the 61.8% retracement target at 1.5323 if we see a clear break below 1.5434.
Only a break above minor resistance at 1.5627 will ease the downside pressure, but a break above 1.5752 is need to confirm, that a bottom is in place.
TLT (Barclay's 20Y+ Bond Fund) - It's make or break time. We we see a clear break above the resistance-line at 125.09 the decline from the 132.21 high has only been a correction and a new high above 132.21 should bee seen. However if resistance at 125.09 protects the upside for a break below 120.67 we should look for a continuation towards the 110.00 area.

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