Thursday, September 20, 2012

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD



 EUR/USD - Having tested the base channel former resistance-line, which is now acting as support, we should see a rally back to the top of blue wave iii at 1.3172. The decline from 1.3172 to 1.2919 could be all of blue wave iv, but I favor, that this decline only was the first part of a more complex correction.
Short term I will look for a break above 1.3047 and more importantly 1.3085 to confirm the rally back towards the top at 1.3172.

 GBP/USD - Is hoovering just below resistance at 1.6305 and a break above here will add more confidence to the bullish count I presented on September 14 (see it here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2012/09/cable-is-big-rally-just-ahead.html)
We could be in some kind of giant triangle calling for a rally wave D.
All that said we need a break above 1.6747 to invalidate the bearish triangle count, that previously has been my working count, but has lost more and more validity as we have worked our way higher.
 EUR/JPY- Has found support and the base channel mid-line and we should now see a rally back towards the top of black wave 3 at 103.85. Even though the decline from 103.85 is clearly in three waves I only regard this decline as the first leg of a more complex correction. It could be a triangle of some kind of flat correction, but no matter which outcome turns out to be the correct one. I would be focused towards the upside and look for a move back towards the top of black wave 3 at 103.85.
If the triangle scenario is the correct one we will not make it all the way back to 103.85, but we should see a move higher towards the 102.75 - 103.00 area.
EUR/NZD - We broke slightly below 1.5578 during the day, which means that black wave 2 most likely ended at 1.5569 (today's low) and we should now for a rally above 1.5667 as the first indication, that a bottom is in place, while a break above 1.5810 will confirm the bottom for a new rally above 1.5902 towards the next target at 1.6498 and most likely even higher.
However if we unexpectedly breaks below 1.5569 we will likely see a deeper correction towards 1.5438 and maybe even 1.5328, but I don't prefer this scenario. 

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