Thursday, September 13, 2012

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

This will just be a quick update, but I will update more in details later today. The break above 1.3004 in EUR/USD has changed the picture to a more bullish one and we can see that it spills over to the other EUR-crosses too.

 
 EUR/USD - The break above 1.3004 has invalidated my count, that we where in a red wave 4 correction waiting for a decline in red wave 5 to below 1.2042. With the break above 1.3004 we have to look for a more bullish count, which is shown above, this count is now my preferred count. It tells us to look for an A-B-C correction higher towards 1.3490 and likely even 1.3827 before wave E of the B-wave triangle is finished.
 
 EUR/JPY - The failure to follow through on the decline from 100.62 indicates, that red wave 5 is extending and therefore we should look for much higher levels before red wave 5 and black wave 3 is finally in place. The first target for red wave 5 is now at 101.95, but I would expect it to rally higher towards 103.46 before it finally runs out of steam.
EUR/NZD - The failure to rally again from the base channel mid-line is of concern. Yes we are currently testing the base channel support-line, but odds do favor that we saw the the first impulsive wave end at 1.5902 and is currently in wave 2 towards the 1.5323 - 1.5434 area, from where we can expect the next impulsive rally to begin.

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