Elliott wave analysis of USD/CHF

USD/CHF

Is at strong support here and this needs to hold other wise we will see a powerful decline (I don't think that SNB will allow that...).

Support at 0.9015 can not be broken if this Count is valid and as long as support at 0.9015 holds firm I believe this Count is valid. I will be looking for a break above 0.9138 as the first indication, that wave e of the B-wave triangle is over and that wave C is developing for a powerful rally higher towards 1.1731 where we find the top of wave 4 of the previous impulsive decline.

So we are at make or break it territory here. STAY FLEXIBLE

Elliott wave analysis of AUD/USD; NZD/USD and AUD/NZD

 AUD/USD

Is the B-wave correction over?

It could well be the case. We saw the rally from 0.8889 stop almost exactly on the 38.2% retracement target and at the same time this c-wave became exactly 1.618 times longer than the a-wave. However we still need the final confirmation to say the a firm top is in place. To confirm the top we need a break below 0.9286. Once support at 0.9286 breaks we should see the downside pressure intensify for a new decline towards 0.8889 and lower.
However as long as support at 0.9286 protects the downside, we must accept the possibility of a break above 0.9529, which will call for a continuation higher towards the 0.9671 - 0.9700 area, before the final top is in place.

NZD/USD

Is the top in place here?

As is the case for the Aussie, we could have seen the top here too. Here we need a break below 0.8152 to confirm, that a firm top is in place at 0.8436. However, as long as support at 0.8152 protects the downside we could see a slightly higher high above 0.8436. That said, The decline from 0.8436 does have all the characteristics of being an impulsive wave, so I favor the top being in place already and is waiting for a break below 0.8152 to intensify the downside pressure for a new test of 0.7716 and lower.

AUD/NZD

Here the questions is whether wave iv is over or we just have see wave b of a flat correction calling for a new rally higher towards 1.1659 before we finally have wave iv in place and can expect the final decline closer to 1.10.
The decline we have just seen from 1.1659 is not a clear impulsive wave and that does favor the flat correction unfolding. However a break below 1.1286 and more important a break below 1.1204 will swing the odds towards wave v developing for the final decline towards 1.10, where we will find strong support.

Elliott wave analsysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for September 26 - 2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 134.95

R2: 134.43

R1: 134.00

Current Spot: 133.85

S1: 133.56

S2: 133.05

S3: 132.68

Technical Summary:

As important support at 132.70 held for a new powerful rally above resistance at 133.56 (neckline of an inverted S/H/S bottom - see the 15 minute chart below), we had the confirmation we needed to say that the bottom was in place. It also meant, that my slightly preferred 1-2/1-2 count has turned out to be the correct count. This means we should now see a series of powerful wave three's unfold higher towards at least 137.45 and probably higher. 

Short term we now will find support at the inverted S/H/S neckline at 133.56, which ideally will protect the downside for a continuation higher towards 134.43 and 134.95.

 

EUR/JPY 15 minute

 

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6542

R2: 1.6473

R1: 1.6407

Current Spot: 1.6392

S1: 1.6368

S2: 1.6329

S3: 1.6302

Technical Summary:

We saw a attempt top break clearly above resistance at 1.6380, but it was not successful, instead we are seeing a consolidation just around this resistance, but it should only be a matter of time before we will see the next rally higher. Short term we will see a slight downside pressure as long as minor resistance at 1.6407 protects the upside, which could cause a move towards 1.6329, but from there or upon a break above 1.6407 the upside is open again for the next rally higher towards strong resistance at 1.6542.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for September 25 - 2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 134.00

R2: 133.56

R1: 133.10

Current Spot: 132.87

S1: 132.58

S2: 132.27

S1: 131.90

Technical Summary:

As the correction from 134.95 continues to put pressure on the downside, the odds is shifting towards the rally from 129.60 being an expanded leading diagonal (see the chart below). At this point the odds for the two possible scenarios is fifty-fifty, but for the 1-2/1-2 scenario to be considered we have to find a bottom now for a series of powerful wave three's pushing higher towards 137.45. However, a break below 132.70 will shift the odds towards the expanding leading diagonal as wave i and we are currently in wave ii which should make it down to 132.12 and maybe even 131.63 before wave iii takes over for a rally higher towards at least 137.45.

 

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6507

R2: 1.6451

R1: 1.6389

Current Spot: 1.6372

S1: 1.6311

S2: 1.6255

S3: 1.6227

Technical Summary:

What should have been the final decline to a new low near 1.6011 turned out to be a fifth failure, with a low at 1.6089 and we have now begun a new major rally. The first major target for this rally is at 1.7475. Of cause we will meet resistance as we move higher towards 1.7475 the first coming in at 1.6389 followed by resistance at 1.6542 (38.2% of wave C); 1.6682 (50% of wave C) and 1.6821 (61.8% of wave C). As long as resistance at 1.6380 protects the upside we could see a decline towards 1.6230 before the next move higher, but once resistance at 1.6380 breaks we should see an acceleration higher. At this point only a break below 1.6089 will invalidate the bullish outlook.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for September 24 - 2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 134.24

R2: 133.92

R1: 133.57

Current Spot: 133.23

S1: 133.09

S2: 132.82

S3: 132.58

Technical Summary:

The correction from 134.95 has been much deeper than expected and the break below the top of red wave i at 133.37 has forced a change of my short term count. We now have two almost equal counts. The first which I prefer slightly and is shown on the chart above. Is that a series of wave one's and two's has developed and is should just be a matter of time before we will see the a series of powerful wave three's higher towards at least 137.45 and possibly higher. The second count is, that a leading diagonal has been building. This might call for a slightly deeper correction towards 132.79 and likely even 132.12 before we can expect the next rally higher. 

Short term a break above 133.56 and more importantly a break above 133.84 confirms the bottom and that the next powerful rally past 134.95 is developing.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6348

R2: 1.6263

R1: 1.6235

Current Spot: 1.6217

S1: 1.6171

S2: 1.6122

S3: 1.6070 

Technical Summary:

The correction from 1.6070 has become slightly more complex than expected. Short term we could see a move closer to 1.6235 before the final decline towards 1.6011 should be expected. However, a break above 1.6235 will be a warning, that the bottom of wave C of the expanded flat correction could be in place, but to be sure we need a break above 1.6263 and more importantly a break above 1.6348, which will confirm the bottom for a new rally higher to 1.7475 and higher.

Elliott wave analysis of AUD/USD

AUD/USD

Since the 0.8845 low we have seen a more powerful rally than expected and by breaking above resistance at 0.9345 we have already corrected 38.2% of the decline from 1.0583 Down to 0.8845. However, looking at the structure of the rally I would expect a move higher towards 0.9714 as long as support at 0.9219 protects the downside. If support at 0.9219 is broken towards the downside it indicates that wave B is already over and wave C lower towards at least 0.8065 is developing.

But as long as support at 0.9219 stays intact we should keep our focus towards the upside for a rally higher towards 0.9714 before lower.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for September 23 -2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 135.24

R2: 134.73

R1: 134.20

Current Spot: 134.14

S1: 134.05

S2: 133.87

S3: 133.44

Technical Summary:

As long as minor resistance at 134.20 protects the upside I will be looking for one last spike lower towards support at 133.87 from where we should see the final rally higher to finish red wave iii near at least 135.24 and maybe even higher to 136.05 before red wave iv takes over for a new correction lower. Depending on whether red wave iii finishes at 133.96 or 136.05 we should be looking for a correction towards 134.50 or maybe even deeper towards 133.96, but we should be able to say more, when we know where red wave iii ended.

Long term we are looking for a rally higher to 137.45 as the ideal target for black wave iii.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6348

R2: 1.6263

R1: 1.6211

Current Spot: 1.6168

S1: 1.6109

S2: 1.6070

S3: 1.6011

Technical Summary:

I'm still expecting resistance at 1.6263 to protect the upside for the next downside pressure towards the next target at 1.6011. Short term a break below a break below 1.6109 will confirm that the next decline has begun.

Only a break above 1.6263 and more importantly a break above 1.6348 will invalidate the bearish call and indicate, that an important bottom is already in place, for a new major rally towards 1.7274 and higher longer term.