Please see my long term Bullish/Bearish counts here first: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2012/07/audusd-in-long-term-bullish-or-bearish.html
My long term count from July 21 - 2012 is still valid, but are we in a bullish configuration or is it a bearish configuration? The fact that we have seen a 61.8% retracement of the five wave decline from 1974 to 2001 makes me prefer the bearish configuration above the bullish count. That said, as long as we are trading inside the Triangle (be it a B- wave Triangle or a wave 4 Triangle) we will have to respect the boundaries until we get the thrust out of the Triangle. Therefore we should look to the downside for the next couple of month as wave d or wave e of the Triangle develops. A break below 1.0287 will confirm a test of important support at 1.0149 and a break below here will confirm a decline towards the Triangle support line near 0.9800.
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