Thursday, December 27, 2012

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

With the rally clearly above 113.76 I have adopted an even more bullish long term count, as can be seen on the chart above. This count "only" calls for a top in wave iii of 3 near the 114.99 - 115.11 area. Looking at the chart above we can also see a negative divergence building on the EWO-indicator, which tells me, that the ongoing rally is loosing momentum and a correction soon should be seen. This correction should not be smaller than 199 pips and will likely decline towards 111.27 and possibly even to 110.59 before the next rally higher towards 117.36.

EUR/NZD

The correction from the 1.6207 high could already be over with the sub-normal test of 1.6098. However, to confirm that the correction from 1.6207 is already over we need a break above 1.6155. As long as minor resistance at 1.6155 is protecting the upside we could still see one last decline towards 1.6075 before the next rally higher sets in. From 1.6075 or a direct break above 1.6155 we should see a new test of the 1.6207 high on the way towards 1.6387 as the next upside target. Long term I expect this ongoing wave iii of 3 to break above the resistance-line of the base channel an accelerate its rally much higher.



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