Thursday, December 20, 2012

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

The ongoing correction is the "biggest" correction we have seen since the 105.97 low, that tells us that we have likely seen the top of wave iii with the test of 112.49 and should now look for a correction towards the 38.2% retracement level of wave iii. This retracement target comes in at 110.00. However, looking at the internal structure of the correction. we might just need a slightly deeper correction towards 110.47 before this correction is over and the next rally higher towards 113.15. Short term we expect a move to 111.08 before the last downswing towards 110.47 and maybe even 110.00 before this correction terminates and the next rally higher can begin. Only a direct break above 111.51 will tell us, that the correction is already over and a new upswing is developing.

EUR/NZD

We have seen a new high, but this is not enough to say that the correction from 1.5915 is over, is to early to tell. The correction from 1.5915 could be an expanding flat correction, which could take us down to 1.5775 before the next rally higher. If it turns out to be an expanded flat correction, we can be almost certain, that the next wave higher will be an extended wave. That said, if minor support at 1.5856 protects the downside for a new rally above 1.5917, then we should turn our focus towards the upside again for the next rally higher towards 1.6004 as the next target.

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