Friday, December 7, 2012

Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

With the break below 106.93 I have changed my short term count slightly. Instead of having the top of wave i at 107.17 I have moved it up to 107.96 and that means we currently are in a wave ii correction. This wave ii could make it all the way down to 105.28. That said we still have to remember, that we are in wave 3 higher and corrections in wave 3 tend to be small and even sub-normal, so we should not be surprised if we already have seen wave ii end at 106.20. A break above 107.08 is need to get the first indication, that wave ii has finished and wave iii higher begun. If we break above 107.08 we should soon see 107.96 tested for the next move higher towards the next major target at 110.85.

EUR/NZD

The deep correction has of cause invalidated my previous count, but the only other impulsive wave structure that allow overlaps is a leading diagonal and as long as important support at 1.5390 hasn't been broken I will stick to that count. Short term we need a break above 1.5600 to get the first indication, that wave ii is over and wave iii higher is building for the next rally higher towards 1.5927 and 1.6059. That said a break above 1.5390 (not expected) will be bearish and call for a decline towards 1.5158 if not deeper.

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