Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

EUR/JPY

After another speedy ride higher to 112.49 a new minor correction has been seen. This correction is likely already over, with its fall to 110.80, but we need a break above 111.93 to confirm that and give us a new push towards 112.49 as the first minor target, followed by a continuation higher towards the 113.47 - 113.68 area, where we will find the next target. Looking at the technical indicator, you can say, that this market is very overbought and yes it is, but some of the biggest moves happens in very overbought territory. So we should not let our self be fooled by overbought indicators, because the risk is that we are taken out and will have a difficult time getting into the market again. Traders trying to pick the top and selling short in the most powerful part of the trend like this, is actually one of the things that keep feeding the trend. Short term support is at 110.91 and important support at 110.14. The later support should not be broken at any time, as that will tell us, that a bigger correction is unfolding.

EUR/NZD

As expected the trend has picked up speed  after the break above 1.5600 and we are already back testing the top at 1.5923. The first try to break 1.5923 was no success and has caused a minor correction, which could already be over at this point and if it is, the next attempt to break above resistance at 1.5923 will likely prove much more successful. A break above 1.5923 will confirm that a move much higher is building and will open for a run towards 1.6311 as the next major target. That said, as long as minor resistance at 1.5875 protect the upside, we must accept the possibility of a deeper correction towards 1.5772 before the next push higher.

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