Elliott wave analysis of USD/CHF

USD/CHF

Is at strong support here and this needs to hold other wise we will see a powerful decline (I don't think that SNB will allow that...).

Support at 0.9015 can not be broken if this Count is valid and as long as support at 0.9015 holds firm I believe this Count is valid. I will be looking for a break above 0.9138 as the first indication, that wave e of the B-wave triangle is over and that wave C is developing for a powerful rally higher towards 1.1731 where we find the top of wave 4 of the previous impulsive decline.

So we are at make or break it territory here. STAY FLEXIBLE

Elliott wave analysis of AUD/USD; NZD/USD and AUD/NZD

 AUD/USD

Is the B-wave correction over?

It could well be the case. We saw the rally from 0.8889 stop almost exactly on the 38.2% retracement target and at the same time this c-wave became exactly 1.618 times longer than the a-wave. However we still need the final confirmation to say the a firm top is in place. To confirm the top we need a break below 0.9286. Once support at 0.9286 breaks we should see the downside pressure intensify for a new decline towards 0.8889 and lower.
However as long as support at 0.9286 protects the downside, we must accept the possibility of a break above 0.9529, which will call for a continuation higher towards the 0.9671 - 0.9700 area, before the final top is in place.

NZD/USD

Is the top in place here?

As is the case for the Aussie, we could have seen the top here too. Here we need a break below 0.8152 to confirm, that a firm top is in place at 0.8436. However, as long as support at 0.8152 protects the downside we could see a slightly higher high above 0.8436. That said, The decline from 0.8436 does have all the characteristics of being an impulsive wave, so I favor the top being in place already and is waiting for a break below 0.8152 to intensify the downside pressure for a new test of 0.7716 and lower.

AUD/NZD

Here the questions is whether wave iv is over or we just have see wave b of a flat correction calling for a new rally higher towards 1.1659 before we finally have wave iv in place and can expect the final decline closer to 1.10.
The decline we have just seen from 1.1659 is not a clear impulsive wave and that does favor the flat correction unfolding. However a break below 1.1286 and more important a break below 1.1204 will swing the odds towards wave v developing for the final decline towards 1.10, where we will find strong support.

Elliott wave analsysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for September 26 - 2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 134.95

R2: 134.43

R1: 134.00

Current Spot: 133.85

S1: 133.56

S2: 133.05

S3: 132.68

Technical Summary:

As important support at 132.70 held for a new powerful rally above resistance at 133.56 (neckline of an inverted S/H/S bottom - see the 15 minute chart below), we had the confirmation we needed to say that the bottom was in place. It also meant, that my slightly preferred 1-2/1-2 count has turned out to be the correct count. This means we should now see a series of powerful wave three's unfold higher towards at least 137.45 and probably higher. 

Short term we now will find support at the inverted S/H/S neckline at 133.56, which ideally will protect the downside for a continuation higher towards 134.43 and 134.95.

 

EUR/JPY 15 minute

 

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6542

R2: 1.6473

R1: 1.6407

Current Spot: 1.6392

S1: 1.6368

S2: 1.6329

S3: 1.6302

Technical Summary:

We saw a attempt top break clearly above resistance at 1.6380, but it was not successful, instead we are seeing a consolidation just around this resistance, but it should only be a matter of time before we will see the next rally higher. Short term we will see a slight downside pressure as long as minor resistance at 1.6407 protects the upside, which could cause a move towards 1.6329, but from there or upon a break above 1.6407 the upside is open again for the next rally higher towards strong resistance at 1.6542.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for September 25 - 2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 134.00

R2: 133.56

R1: 133.10

Current Spot: 132.87

S1: 132.58

S2: 132.27

S1: 131.90

Technical Summary:

As the correction from 134.95 continues to put pressure on the downside, the odds is shifting towards the rally from 129.60 being an expanded leading diagonal (see the chart below). At this point the odds for the two possible scenarios is fifty-fifty, but for the 1-2/1-2 scenario to be considered we have to find a bottom now for a series of powerful wave three's pushing higher towards 137.45. However, a break below 132.70 will shift the odds towards the expanding leading diagonal as wave i and we are currently in wave ii which should make it down to 132.12 and maybe even 131.63 before wave iii takes over for a rally higher towards at least 137.45.

 

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6507

R2: 1.6451

R1: 1.6389

Current Spot: 1.6372

S1: 1.6311

S2: 1.6255

S3: 1.6227

Technical Summary:

What should have been the final decline to a new low near 1.6011 turned out to be a fifth failure, with a low at 1.6089 and we have now begun a new major rally. The first major target for this rally is at 1.7475. Of cause we will meet resistance as we move higher towards 1.7475 the first coming in at 1.6389 followed by resistance at 1.6542 (38.2% of wave C); 1.6682 (50% of wave C) and 1.6821 (61.8% of wave C). As long as resistance at 1.6380 protects the upside we could see a decline towards 1.6230 before the next move higher, but once resistance at 1.6380 breaks we should see an acceleration higher. At this point only a break below 1.6089 will invalidate the bullish outlook.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for September 24 - 2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 134.24

R2: 133.92

R1: 133.57

Current Spot: 133.23

S1: 133.09

S2: 132.82

S3: 132.58

Technical Summary:

The correction from 134.95 has been much deeper than expected and the break below the top of red wave i at 133.37 has forced a change of my short term count. We now have two almost equal counts. The first which I prefer slightly and is shown on the chart above. Is that a series of wave one's and two's has developed and is should just be a matter of time before we will see the a series of powerful wave three's higher towards at least 137.45 and possibly higher. The second count is, that a leading diagonal has been building. This might call for a slightly deeper correction towards 132.79 and likely even 132.12 before we can expect the next rally higher. 

Short term a break above 133.56 and more importantly a break above 133.84 confirms the bottom and that the next powerful rally past 134.95 is developing.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6348

R2: 1.6263

R1: 1.6235

Current Spot: 1.6217

S1: 1.6171

S2: 1.6122

S3: 1.6070 

Technical Summary:

The correction from 1.6070 has become slightly more complex than expected. Short term we could see a move closer to 1.6235 before the final decline towards 1.6011 should be expected. However, a break above 1.6235 will be a warning, that the bottom of wave C of the expanded flat correction could be in place, but to be sure we need a break above 1.6263 and more importantly a break above 1.6348, which will confirm the bottom for a new rally higher to 1.7475 and higher.

Elliott wave analysis of AUD/USD

AUD/USD

Since the 0.8845 low we have seen a more powerful rally than expected and by breaking above resistance at 0.9345 we have already corrected 38.2% of the decline from 1.0583 Down to 0.8845. However, looking at the structure of the rally I would expect a move higher towards 0.9714 as long as support at 0.9219 protects the downside. If support at 0.9219 is broken towards the downside it indicates that wave B is already over and wave C lower towards at least 0.8065 is developing.

But as long as support at 0.9219 stays intact we should keep our focus towards the upside for a rally higher towards 0.9714 before lower.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for September 23 -2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 135.24

R2: 134.73

R1: 134.20

Current Spot: 134.14

S1: 134.05

S2: 133.87

S3: 133.44

Technical Summary:

As long as minor resistance at 134.20 protects the upside I will be looking for one last spike lower towards support at 133.87 from where we should see the final rally higher to finish red wave iii near at least 135.24 and maybe even higher to 136.05 before red wave iv takes over for a new correction lower. Depending on whether red wave iii finishes at 133.96 or 136.05 we should be looking for a correction towards 134.50 or maybe even deeper towards 133.96, but we should be able to say more, when we know where red wave iii ended.

Long term we are looking for a rally higher to 137.45 as the ideal target for black wave iii.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6348

R2: 1.6263

R1: 1.6211

Current Spot: 1.6168

S1: 1.6109

S2: 1.6070

S3: 1.6011

Technical Summary:

I'm still expecting resistance at 1.6263 to protect the upside for the next downside pressure towards the next target at 1.6011. Short term a break below a break below 1.6109 will confirm that the next decline has begun.

Only a break above 1.6263 and more importantly a break above 1.6348 will invalidate the bearish call and indicate, that an important bottom is already in place, for a new major rally towards 1.7274 and higher longer term.

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/USD - Triangle developing, but is it a wave 4 or a B-wave triangle?

GBP/USD

The powerful rally since the 1.4813 low tells us that the long term triangle that has been developing since January 2009 is not over yet.

The big question is of cause whether this is a wave 4 triangle or as shown above a B-wave triangle calling for a continuation higher once this triangle finally comes to an end.

If it's a wave 4 triangle the current rally will be the e-wave of the triangle and should be followed by a thrust out of the triangle to the downside. If however, this is a B-wave triangle we will see a top near 1.6300 followed by wave e lower towards 1.5709 and possibly even lower towards 1.5535 and maybe all the way down to the 61.8% correction target of wave d at 1.5365 before a powerful thrust out of the triangle towards the upside.

I still like the B-wave scenario slightly over the wave 4 scenario, but will stay alert to whatever the chart tells me.

Elliott wave analysis of DJI and Starbucks - Are both topping out?

 Monthly

Weekly

 

Dow Jones Industrial

With a new high this week at 15,709.58 we got the word, that the rally from March 2009 was still intact, but for how long?

Last week we saw a Shooting Star candle, which could indicate that a top could be in place, however one candle is never enough to confirm a top or a bottom, so to confirm that a possible top could be in place we need a confirming candle down-candle the next week. That said only a break below support at 14,762.35 will confirm, that wave D of the major expanding triangle is in place and wave E lower is about to take over for a major decline towards 5,500 long term.

As long as Important support at 14,762.35 stays intact we could still see a move higher towards the long term resistance near 16,000.

Starbucks

An important top could be in place with last weeks top at 77.45. The impressive rally from 7.06 in November 2008 saw a wave 1 from 7.06 to 28.50, followed by a very shallow wave 2, which only corrected 23.6% of wave 1.

From the wave 2 low at 22.50 we saw an extended rally in wave 3 to 62.00, which was between 1.618 and 2 times the length of wave 1.

Wave 4 corrected almost perfectly 50 % of wave 3 at 43.04 (the perfect 50% correction would have been at 42.50.

Finally we have just seen wave 5, which has exceeded the 61.8% target of the distance from the beginning of wave 1 to the top of wave 3 at 76.99.

However to confirm, that wave 5 is in place we need a break below 70.11, which would call for a decline down to 43.04 as the first long term target.

Elliott wave analysis of FTSE 100 - Long term count

FTSE 100

Marjan asked me for my opinion on the British FTSE 100 index, so here we go.

I think that we have been a major expanded flat correction since the top at 6,950.60 in December 1999. We saw wave A Down from 6.950.60 to 3,277.50 and wave B is still ongoing and has been a very complex flat, which I expect will end near 7,147 securing a new all time high, before wave C lower takes over. Wave C should end below 3,277.50.

For now stay focused for one last new high in wave v near 7,147 and then be ready to step aside.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for September 20 -2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 135.60

R2: 135.20

R1: 134.94

Current Spot: 134.41

S1: 134.20

S2: 134.05

S3: 133.87

Technical Summary:

Red wave 3 is still developing and for the short term we should expect support at 134.05 and maybe the slightly lower support at 133.87 to protect the downside, for a rally higher towards 135.20 and 135.60 before red wave iii is in place and yet an other minor correction in red wave iv takes over.

For the longer term picture we are looking for black wave iii to end near 137.45 before black wave iv is expected to take over. As black wave ii was a simple and deep correction, we should expect black wave iv to be a shallow and complex correction, due to Elliott's Principe of alternation.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6348

R2: 1.6263

R1: 1.6193

Current Spot: 1.6161

S1: 1.6111

S2: 1.6073

S3: 1.6011

Technical Summary:

As long as resistance at 1.6263 and more importantly as long as important short term resistance at 1.6348 protects the upside we should be expecting a move lower towards 1.6011 as the next downside target. Over the last 10 days we have seen a massive bullish divergence building, which is a warning, that the wave C decline of this expanded flat correction, is loosing momentum almost by the minute. However, to confirm this loss of momentum we need a break above 1.6263 and more importantly a break above 1.6348. A break above the later will confirm a new rally higher towards 1.7273 and even higher longer term.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/NZD - Long term count call for 1.9571

EUR/NZD - Long Term Count

Nguyen asked me for my long term Count on EUR/NZD, so here we go...

Since 1992 EUR/NZD have move lower in a major flat correction and a well defined channel.
Wave A took 5 years from 1992 to 1997(Fibonacci number) while wave B took 3 years from 2009 to 2012 (also a Fibonacci number).

Wave C is equal to wave A within just 45 small pips (amazing). The last part of the decline from 1.9571 is overlapping and looks like an ending diagonal and normally we should expect a return to the start of the ending diagonal once it's finished and that would call for a rally higher towards 1.9571 over the coming years.

Could we see a new low below 1.4966? Yes of cause, but it will be short lived and might only make it to 1.4921 before the next rally sets in. This scenario is by no way my preferred outcome, but at this point it can't be ruled out.
 

Elliott wave analysis of Gold - Is gold ready for new highs or is this just a correction?

Gold

Paulina asked me to update gold after yesterdays rally.

Has anything changed? NO!

I think that the rally of the 1,292 low is a correction and ideally resistance at 1,380 will protect the upside for a break below 1,357 and more importantly a break below 1,337, which will confirm, that wave iii lower is developing for a decline towards at least 1,233 and more likely even lower towards 1,145.

Only a break above resistance at 1,434 will invalidate my bearish count and shift the picture towards a bullish count calling for a rally higher towards 1,620 and 1,706.

Elliott wave analysis of AUD/USD and AUD/JPY

AUD/USD

Juan has asked for my view on AUD/USD.

My long term view has not changed after the latest rally. Long term I still looking for a decline towards at least 0.6007, but what about the short to medium term Picture?

Short term we have hit strong resistance at 0.9529 however, the structure does not look complete yet, and that would argue for a continuation higher towards 0.9714 and likely even higher towards 0.9918 and in case this X-wave extends we might even see a continuation higher towards 1.0468, before the next downside pressure takes over. Short term we should find support 0.9435 and at 0.9393.

AUD/JPY

 

Since the low at 55.07 in October 2008 we have seen a major A-B-C rally with a high at 105.43. Since the 105.43 high we have seen an impulsive decline to 83.34 as wave a and we are currently in wave b, which I expect will peak near 98.14 for the C-leg lower towards 85.00.

 

Short term we will find support at 93.80 and Again at 92.97.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for September 19 - 2013

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 133.87

R2: 133.62

R1: 133.37

Current Spot: 133.18

S1: 132.87

S2: 132.57

S3: 132.22

Technical Summary:

With the break above important short term resistance we finally got the confirmation, that red wave iii is developing towards at least 135.13 and more likely even higher towards 137.28. For the short term it would be ideal if support at 132.87 protected the downside for the break above 133.87, but only a break below support at 132.57 will confuse the overall bullish count and call for a move back down to 131.63, but this is a low probability scenario and as long as support at 132.87 is protecting the downside we should stay focused on the upside.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6263

R2: 1.6187

R1: 1.6139

Current Spot: 1.6119

S1: 1.6077

S2: 1.6026

S3: 1.5966

Technical Summary:

Trying to pinpoint the bottom for this wave C has been a real pain. We hit the cluster of supports at 1.6119, but we also saw a break below this support, with 1.6077 being the low for now. Looking at the EWO-indicator we have a massive divergence telling us, that momentum for this decline is weakening almost by the minute and still, this decline continues. By breaking below the ideal target at 1.6119 we now have a window open for a continuation even lower towards 1.5873. That said, I find it most unlikely that we will see a decline that low and regard this as a short term spike below the ideal 1.6119 target. However, to confirm that wave C is over we need a break above 1.6263 and more importantly a break above 1.6348 to confirm that wave C is over and a new rally higher towards 1.7274 and higher has begun.

Elliott wave analysis of USD/JPY - Is the next powerful rally higher nearby?

 Weekly

 

4 Hourly

 

 

USD/JPY

 

We are currently in wave 2 of a new impulsive thrust out of symmetric triangle. Once this wave 2 ends we should see a very powerful rally higher towards 103.95, but we need a break above minor resistance at 99.98 to confirm that wave 3 higher is developing. As long as resistance at 99.98 protects the upside we could see a slightly deeper correction towards 98.12 before wave 3 will be ready to take of.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for September 18 - 2013

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 133.37

R2: 133.17

R1: 132.64

Current Spot: 132.49

S1: 132.34

S2: 132.10

S3: 131.87

Technical Summary:

I'm still looking for the break above important resistance at 132.64 to give us the "go" for the next impulsive rally higher towards 133.87 and 138.00 as the next long term target.

Ideally resistance at 132.64 will break at the next attempt, but as long as it protects the upside we must accept the possibility for a renewed downside pressure towards 132.10 and maybe even lower towards 131.87, but we should not break below 131.87. If we do break below 131.87 we should expect even more downside pressure towards strong support at 130.98. This has become a waiting game and a silent fight between the Bulls and the Bears and we need to be patient and wait to confirm who becomes the winner.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6348

R2: 1.6304

R1: 1.6274

Current Spot:1.6241

S1: 1.6230

S2: 1.6187

S3: 1.6157

Technical Summary:

With the clear break below support at 1.6247 we knew, that the next important support at 1.6117 is in play. Short term minor resistance at 1.6274 should now protect the upside for the next decline towards 1.6187 and 1.6157 before we hit the cluster of supports near 1.6117. That said, we should be aware that this wave C decline from 1.7274 is loosing momentum fast and therefore a bottom could be found at any time now for the next impulsive rally higher towards 1.7274 and higher longer term. However we need a break above 1.6348 to get the first indication, that the bottom is in place, while a break above 1.6420 confirms the bottom and the development of the next impulsive rally higher.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for September 17 - 2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 133.37

R2: 133.17

R1: 132.64

Current Spot: 132.38

S1: 132.04

S2: 131.63

S3. 131.22

Technical Summary:

We have been trading in a very narrow 40 pips range since yesterday. I'm still looking for a break above 132.64 to confirm, that red wave ii is over and red wave iii has taken over for the next impulsive rally higher towards 133.37 and 138.00 as the next major target. However, as long as resistance at 132.64 protects the upside we must accept the possibility for a new attack on support at 131.63 and if broken a deeper correction towards 131.37 and less likely even lower towards 130.98 before higher again.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6421

R2: 1.6364

R1: 1.6348

Current Spot: 1.6307

S1: 1.6276

S2: 1.6227

S3: 1.6189

Technical Summary:

Here I'm looking for the break above resistance at 1.6364 to confirm, that wave C of the expanded flat correction is finally in place. A break above 1.6364 will not alone confirm that wave C is over, but it will also confirm, that the next impulsive rally higher towards 1.7274 and 1.7800 is developing. That said, we will have to accept the risk of an even deeper decline in wave C as long as resistance at 1.6364 protects the upside. A clear break below 1.6227 will call for a move lower towards 1.6117 before higher, but this outcome is not my preferred picture.