It seems that we finally have found a bottom, of wave ii of 5, at 119.74. The rally of 119.74 clearly has impulsive characters, which adds confidence in our call, that wave iii of 5 higher have begun. Short term we would like to see support at 120.35 protect the downside for a rally above 120.85, which confirms the next rally higher towards at least 121.50 and preferable higher towards 123.90 in a powerful rally higher. Only a break below 119.74 will invalidate our bullish call and indicate, that wave ii still is ongoing.
Today I would like to introduce my alternate count, which is, that a wave 4 triangle is unfolding. If this is the case we will see a rally higher towards 124.50 in wave D and then the final decline in wave E towards 121.59 from where the trust out of triangle towards the upside is expected to take place. It should be noted, that no matter which of my counts is the correct one, the outcome will be the same, which is that one more rally above 127.70 is to be expected in wave 5.
It seems like we have seen the final bottom of the expanding triangle, which has been unfolding since September 2012, at 1.5227 just above my ideal target at 1.5209. The rally of 1.5227 does have impulsive characters and if this is the case we should ideally see support at 1.5279 protect the downside for a break above 1.5342 for the next powerful rally higher towards at least 1.5409 and ideally higher towards 1.5623 as the next long term rally starts to unfold. Short term only a break below 1.5227 will invalidate our bullish call, but even if a break below 1.5227 is seen, the downside potential should be very limited.
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