Thursday, March 14, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

Wave ii of 5 most likely ended at 124.05 and this support should not be broken at any time now. I'm looking for a break above resistance at 125.78 as the confirmation, that wave ii is indeed over and wave iii of 5 is developing for a rally higher to at least 130.72 and more likely we will see wave iii of 5 move even higher towards 134.58. At 134.58 wave iii will be 1.618 times longer than wave i. I'm also looking for a very powerful rally in wave iii, therefore resistance should be broken without mush of a fight. Only a surprise break below 124.05 will delay the expected upside pressure for a move closer to 123.80 before the next upside rally can be expected.

EUR/NZD

The price-action since the impulsive rally from 1.5670 to 1.5871 is clearly corrective in character, which indicates, that we soon will see a break above important resistance at 1.5878. A break above resistance at 1.5878 will signal, that wave e of the expanding triangle fell short of its ideal target and that a new powerful rally has begun. However, as long as resistance at 1.5878 protects the upside we should expect a minor decline towards 1.5807, but will likely not see anything lower than 1.5765 before the next test of important resistance at 1.5878 sets in and a break above 1.5878 will call for a powerful rally higher towards 1.6134 and 1.6253.

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