Yesterdays rally was much bigger than I expected. The break past resistance at 122.75 was a warning that we should expect more upside, but is our call for one last decline towards 117.28 dead? No not yet. It will take a break above 125.89 to confirm (I think I have mentioned 125.22 as the invalidation-point, but it is at 125.89. I'm sorry for the confusion), that wave 4 ended already at 118.73 in a double zig-zag. What I don't like about this rally is the very start of it. It was messy with lots of overlaps and even a minor triangle can be seen and that is not what we should expect at the beginning of an impulse rally like wave 5. Therefore as long as resistance at 125.89 protects the upside I will be looking for a new decline and a break below 124.19 will be the first indication that the x-wave have peaked. That said a break above 125.22 will invalidate the possible x-wave and indicate that wave 5 is indeed developing for a rally towards 127.70 and higher towards 131.38 as the first possible target for wave 5.
The break past 1.5739 has forced me to change the short term count to a running triangle. However, the final outcome will still be the same as I'm still are looking for one more decline to just below 1.5390 and more likely even closer to support at 1.5200. That said a break above green wave c of the triangle at 1.5934 will invalidate the downside scenario and call for a new rally higher towards 1.6024 and even higher towards 1.6359. I expect green wave e of the triangle to stall shortly close to 1.5883, but must allow for a move closer to 1.5934, before a break below 1.5800 which confirms the next decline lower towards 1.5597 and lower.
No comments:
Post a Comment