EUR/JPY
We have seen a break above minor resistance at 121.56, which was the first good indication, that a bottom might be in place with the test of 120.08. That said the rally of the 120.08 low is not yet convincing and we need more prof in form of a break above 122.84 and more importantly a break above 123.38 to confirm the bottom and that wave iii of 5 is developing. Short term I would like to see support at 121.58 and more importantly support at 120.75 protect the downside for the next rally higher. A break below 120.75 will open up for a new test of 120.08 and possibly slightly below.
I'm still looking for the last part of this e wave, of the large expanding triangle, to reach close to 1.5200, before a bottom is in place. Short term I expect resistance in the 1.5357 - 1.5364 area to protect the upside for the next decline towards 152.41 and ideally 1.5209 before this decline is finally over. A break above 1.5364 will weaken the downside pressure, but only a break above 1.5379 and more importantly a break above 1.5426 will indicate that a bottom might already be in place for a new major rally.
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