The decline became slightly deeper than expected, but we have likely seen the bottom or is very close to the final bottom of wave ii of 5 now. To confirm the bottom we need support at 120.71 to protect the downside for a break above 121.56, which will be the first good indication that the bottom is in place for a rally higher towards 123.38 and a break above here confirms the bottom and that wave iii of 5 is developing. However, if we break below 120.71 we must accept, that one last new low is needed before wave ii of 5 is over. The only demand I have to this wave ii is, that at no point do we see a break below the starting point of wave i at 118.73, if that was to happen my bullish count is invalidated.
We have finally seen the break below support at 1.5390, that means that all demands for wave e of the expanding triangle now is fulfilled. That said we would like to see this e wave decline a little further towards 1.5200 before bottoming out for the next rally higher. However, we should be aware, that a break above 1.5469 could be a first warning that the bottom is in place, but we need a break above 1.5560 and more importantly a break above 1.5627 to confirm the bottom and a new major rally.
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