Sunday, April 21, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

EUR/JPY

We have seen a slow continuation higher and with the break above 129.73 we should see a new high above the former top at 131.12. That said, I do not expect that this possible new top we cover much new ground and  could well stall already at 131.28. Short term I expect a minor set-back towards 129.48 before the last rally higher to the ideal target at 131.28. However, we are fast closing in on the top of the entire rally from 94.10 and I will continue to look for signs that this rally is over and a big correction in wave 2 sets in either from 131.28 or upon a break below 128.78.

EUR/NZD

With the failure to break above 1.5577 it is still an open question whether we have seen the bottom of wave ii at 1.5408 or not. I still think that the odds slightly favor the bottom-scenario, but I will wait patiently for the confirmation, which a break above 1.5546 and more importantly a break above 1.5577 will be. Once resistance at 1.5577 is cleared we should see a powerful rally towards at least 1.5683 and likely even higher towards 1.5818. Short term I'm looking for one last small decline to 1.5439 and maybe even 1.5426 before the next real upside pressure kicks in, but it will take a break above 1.5546 to indicate that wave ii is over and wave iii is developing.

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