Monday, April 29, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

My preferred count is, that a wave iv triangle is building and setting the stage for one last rally higher towards 135.47 once the triangle is finished. Looking at the structure of the triangle we are currently building wave d of the triangle, which I expect will end near 130.00. Once wave d of the triangle is finished we only need one more set-back in wave e before the last rally higher. However, the triangle need to respect support at 126.43 and more importantly support at 124.87, If support at 126.43 breaks the preferred scenario tilts in favor of a top already being in place at 131.12 and wave (2) developing towards at least 118.73.

EUR/NZD

It is still an open question whether wave c of ii did finish at 1.5236 and is headed higher or we still need one last decline closer to 1.5188. As long as support at 1.5255 I will be looking for a break above 1.5356 and more importantly a break above 1.5395 to confirm that we did see a bottom at 1.5236 and is headed higher towards 1.5611. However a break below 1.5255 will indicate, that wave c is not finished yet and call for one last decline closer to 1.5188 before wave iii can take over.

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