The break below support at 128.78 once again increases the odds for a top being in place already at 131.12. However, we need a break below 126.43 to confirm, that the rally from 124.87 only was in three waves and therefore only a correction. This tug of war between bulls and bears will soon find its winner. If the bulls win we still need one last rally above the former high at 131.12, but the possible upside should be very limited. If the bears win we will see a break below 126.43 and likely an acceleration towards the downside as long position are closed fast. No matter if the bulls or the bears are winning this tug of war, we have a complete five wave rally of the 94.10 low to the high of 131.12. Even if we does see more last high we should be very close to the top and should prepare our self for wave (2) to take over. Wave (2) should at least take us down to the bottom of wave 4 at 118.73, but the decline in wave (2) could be deeper.
We are currently seeing a break above the channel resistance-line near 1.5577. If this break is confirmed my bullish call is confirmed and we should see acceleration as wave iii progresses for a rally towards at least 159.17 and more likely higher towards 1.6207. However as long as resistance at 1.5577 protects the upside we could risk another set-back in an even more complex correction, but the would take a break below 154.87 to confirm that this even more complex correction, than we have already seen, is taking place and a new move towards 1.5405 and maybe down to 1.5375 should be seen.
No comments:
Post a Comment