Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

We are clearly seen a loss of upside momentum, but as long as minor support at 129.35 and more importantly support at 128.44 protects the downside I'm still looking for one more new high closer to our ideal target near 130.90. Short term a break above 129.92 will confirm one last rally higher. That said, it should be accepted that we are close to the top of wave iii of 5 and a relatively large correction is to follow. It should not be a deep correction, to the contrary it should be a shallow and complex correction as wave iv of 5 unfolds. The ideal target for this wave iv will likely be at in the 127.77 - 128.03 area. 

EUR/NZD

My ideal corrective target at 1.5333 has been tested and surpassed by a fraction, but I think this correction is close to termination and the next powerful rally about to take off. A break above minor resistance at 1.5371 will be the first indication, that a bottom is in place, while a break above resistance at 1.5462 is needed to confirm that wave ii is over and wave iii higher is unfolding. That said, we must accept, as long as resistance 1.5371 protects the upside, that this wave ii correction could become slightly deeper towards 1.5310.

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