Monday, June 24, 2013

Elliott wave analysis on USD/ZAR - Long term count

USD/ZAR

JT asked about my count for USD/ZAR as I recently said I expect ZAR to weaken.

My preferred count is, that a large triangle is developing and that we currently are in the later part of the D-leg higher towards at least 10.71, but we could easily see it higher towards 11.10 before the D-leg is over and the final E-leg lower takes over.

However, there is a much more bullish possibility. If the bottom at 5.535 in late 2004 where all the correction needed, then the rally from 5.535 to 11.81 in 2008 was a leading diagonal as wave 1 and the decline from 11.81 down to 6.53 in 2011 was wave 2 and we are currently in wave 3 higher and if this is the case, then resistance near 11.10 should be overcome with no problem at all. However, for now I do think, that the triangle scenario fits the picture the best, but we should always stay flexible.

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