Thursday, June 27, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

The rally of the 126.57 low has been very dynamic and the fact, that we have broken above the falling channel resistance-line. Has forced me to make a slight change to my count. The most likely count is now, that we are in wave b towards 131.27 before the next downside pressure should be expected. I did warn yesterday, that the overlapping structure down from 129.90 could be either a leading diagonal or a correction of the 129.90 high and the impulsive rally indicates, that the decline of the 129.90 high was a red b correction. I'm  now looking for red wave c higher towards 131.27. Once this red wave c is finished we should expect a new powerful decline down to at least 124.96 again.


EUR/NZD

We have seen the expected minor rally higher. It went a little higher than the expected 1.6789 (the top has been at 1.6801), but that does not damage the larger count. I'm now looking for a break below 1.6705 and more importantly a break below 1.6665 to confirm the next decline towards 1.6600 and 1.6541. Once we reach support at 1.6541 we should expect a new correction higher, but this correction should stay well below 1.6801. For now we should stay focused towards the downside and a break below 1.6705 as the first indication, that a decline to 1.6541 is in Progress.

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