The short term important support was attacked again yesterday and once again the attempt failed. The lack of downside pressure is kind of worrying and as the structure of the decline from 129.90 is very overlapping, we should stay alert. The very overlapping decline from 129.90 can mean two things.
1) That a leading diagonal has been building. If this is the case we should likely see a rally towards 127.80 and maybe even higher towards 128.24 or 128.63 in wave ii before the real downside pressure takes over.
2) That the hole decline from 129.90 has been a triple zig-zag correction. If this is the case we should soon see a new much bigger rally materialize towards at least 131.46.
Both scenarios is calling for some upside pressure for now, but the slightly longer outcome will be totally different. For now we will just have to wait and see, which scenario is the right one. However my slightly preferred count is the leading diagonal Count.
With the break below important support at 1.6825 (top of red wave i) we knew, that we had seen the top of black wave v and wave C at 1.7111. Even though I believed, that we had more more room towards the upside. I did warn, that a top could be in place any time, as we had a complete five wave rally from the 1.5080 low.
So what can we expect from here? First of all we are likely looking for a corrective X-wave building. The ideal target would be just below 1.6388. Therefore we will have to switch our mind-set towards a corrective decline rather than an impulsive rally higher. Short term I'm expecting a minor corrective rally towards 1.6789, from where the next part of the X-wave decline should take place towards 1.6529.
No comments:
Post a Comment