Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

We have seen a nice impulsive decline from the 131.31 high, which confirms that the x-wave indeed did end at 131.31 and the second zig-zag lower now has begun. Short term I'm looking for a minor rally towards resistance at 128.70 and maybe 128.96 before the next decline sets in. A break below support at 128.09 and more importantly a break below 127.42 confirms, that the next decline towards strong support at 126.30 is developing. However, a break below support at 126.30 confirms, that a decline to my ideal wave 2 target at 118.73 is developing.

EUR/NZD

I think we saw the culmination of black wave iii at 171.09 yesterday. It was a little higher, than my ideal target near 1.7040, but then, trying to pin-point the top of an extended wave three is not the most easy thing to do. Short term i'm looking for a minor rally towards 1.6956 and ideally to 1.6992 before the next decline lower begins. This decline should break below 1.6800 and more importantly break below 1.6692, which will confirm that we have seen the top of black wave iii and that black wave iv towards 1.6399 is developing. That said, We must consider the possibility of black wave iv to be sub-normal, because of the strength of black wave iii, but only time will tell.

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