As we broke above resistance at 129.34 the only line of defence we had back was the falling channel resistance-line near 129.90. This resistance-line has so far protected the upside and I'm now looking for a break below important support at 128.09 to confirm that the next decline towards strong support at 124.96 is developing. But what if we break above resistance at 129.90? In my eyes, that would indicate an even more complex correction is developing. I have not given up on my ideal target at 118.73, where wave 2 will have corrected 38.2% of wave 1. One thing is for sure, I do not think that the correction from 133.81 has taken long enough. Until now it has taken about four weeks and I expected to take 4 - 8 weeks more.
We saw a new top at 1.7113 yesterday, so from an Elliott Wave Perspective we now have a five wave rally since the 1.5080 low. That does not mean I think this rally is over, but we are for sure moving closer to the point in time, where we should expect a bigger correction. As an minimum for this rally, I expect to see 1.7162, where black wave v will be 38.2% of the distance traveled from the bottom of black wave i to the top of black wave iii. However, it is more likely that we will see a continuation higher towards 1.7400, where black wave v will be 50% of that distance and lastly it could move towards 1.7640, where black wave v will have traveled 61.8% of that distance. Which target is more likely? I think that the 1.7640 target is the most likely target, but from now on a top can be put in at any time. So it's important to protect ourself the best we can. For now such potection would be a stop at 1.6820, which is just below the top of red wave i.
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