Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

I will update the text later today:

 EUR/USD -

 GBP/USD -

 EUR/JPY -

EUR/NZD -

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/USD - Okay the triangle scenario seems to be the right one (good guess...). That means we should be looking for a rally higher towards resistance near 1.3110. Remember we don't have to hit this resistance level. We could easily see a high at 1.3065, which will end wave D, but only time will tell where wave D ends. However, once wave D is in place it's then things begin to be interesting, because we then need the final E-wave in the triangle, before we break out of the triangle to the UP-side.

 GBP/USD - Is ready to take on the resistance line back from the 1.6310 high again. Notice the Inverted S/H/S formation that has been building and will be triggered if this resistance line breaks. The target for this Inverted S/H/S is at 1.6380. A break above 1.6310 would on the other hand trigger a possible double bottom with a target at 1.7345.

 EUR/JPY - The big question is whether we have seen red wave ii finish or it's still ongoing? If resistance at 103.39 protects the upside for a break below 102.59, the we know red wave ii is over and a new decline towards 101.45 is under way. However, a break above 103.39 indicates that red wave ii is still ongoing and that we should see a move a little higher towards 103.59 before down.

EUR/NZD - With the break above 1.5789 yesterday is the first good indication, that the big expanding flat correction from the 1.5967 high is over and a new powerful rally is well under way. A break above 1.5820 confirms the bottom and the rally higher. Only a break below 1.5705 will indicate that we still need one more new low near 1.5652 before higher.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/USD - I think the Triangle concept has just grown on me. I like it more and more and I think we could see one more low closer to the 1.2860 - 1.2870 area, before wave C is done and wave D starts building. I would be looking for wave D to top out near 1.3110.

 EUR/JPY - We might see the ongoing small correction a little higher, but once it's done we should see the next powerful decline towards 101.45 on the way to the next ideal target near 100.19.
At this point only a break above 104.42 will invalidate this count and call for a new high above 104.59, but that is not my preferred count at all.

EUR/NZD - Did we see the C-leg of the expanded flat correction from the 1.5967 high end with the test of 1.5690 yesterday? It's clearly a possibility and a break above 1.5787 will be the first strong indication, that is indeed the case, while a break above 1.5845 confirms the bottom and the next powerful rally higher. However, as long as resistance at 1.5787 has not been penetrated we still could see one last decline towards the ideal target-area between 1.5635 - 1.5652, from where the next rally could commerce.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD: EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/USD - I like the Triangle count more and more and think with would fit my count since the 1.2044 bottom perfectly. If the Triangle count is correct we could see a move a little lower in wave C before wave D higher takes over and should cause a minor rally towards 1.3110 around November 13. That said we still can't exclude the flat correction, which would call for a break below 1.2825 towards 1.2740 be fore up.

 EUR/JPY - My count for a powerful decline in wave iii down from the peak at 104.59 is working perfectly and we should soon see the next powerful decline towards at least 101.85 and more likely 101.45 on the way towards the ideal target for this correction at 99.35.

EUR/NZD - We just need one more decline towards the 1.5935 - 1.5952 to end this c-wave of the expanded flat correction and set the stage for the next powerful rally higher. A break above 1.5777 and more importantly 1.5845 confirms that the expanded flat since the 1.5967 peak is over and wave iii of 3 is under way - Stay tuned!

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/TRY and AUD/NZD

 EUR/TRY - It has been quite a while since I have last spoken about this cross, so please take a look at my post from July 30 first: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2012/07/elliott-wave-analysis-of-eurusd-usdjpy_30.html.
Once the cross broke below 241.28 in early January 2012 I just kept holding on to my call for a decline to the double top target near 2.20 and made a very nice 8% profit on this cross and that is without the interest premium gained from be long TRY.
On July 30 I called for a correction towards 2.3062 in wave 4. However we have seen a move higher to 2.3662. The question whether we have seen the top of wave 4? A break below 2.3200 will be the first indication, that this is the case, while a break below 2.2988 will confirm, that wave 4 did indeed end at 2.3662 and wave 5 down to below 2.1829 is under way.
The risk is a break above 2.3662, which would call for a move higher towards 2.3842 and maybe even 2.4205 before down.

AUD/NZD - Could a big decline be just ahead in this cross? A clear break below support at 1.2316 will call for a much deeper decline, as that would trigger a big Shoulder/Head/Shoulder top with a target at 1.0935. The risk is a more prolonged consolidation above 1.2316 as a second right shoulder could be building, but longer term I still think that the real risk is to the downside here.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/USD - We are just about to break below the support-line from the 1.2044 low. If we break clearly below here I will change my count to show a wave A peak at 1.3172 instead of blue wave 3.
The ongoing correction from 1.3172 could also turn into a B-wave Triangle instead of the flat correction I mentioned yesterday, but no matter, which corrective wave pattern is the right one, we need more time.

 GBP/USD - Is back at the resistance-line from the 1.6310 to confirm, that the correction is over and the next upswing is under way. A clear break above 1.6144 and more importantly 1.6178 will confirm that the correction from 1.6310 is over and a new rally higher towards 1.6618 and 1.6744 is under way.

 EUR/JPY - The c-leg of the expanded flat correction from 103.28 became a little bigger than expected. Wave c became 2.618 time wave a, which is a bit unusual, but not that rare. However, the expanded flat tells us, that we should expect an extended wave iii. I would look for an extension of at least 2 times wave i, which should target 101.75. The target for this correction is at 99.35.

EUR/NZD - We are about ready to see the final move down in red wave v towards the 1.5635 - 1.5652 area, which will end the expanding flat correction from the 1.5967 peak and call for an extended rally in wave 3 to at least 1.6481, but likely higher.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD and Crude Oil

 EUR/USD - Big flat correction developing. We are currently in the c-leg, which should decline to 1.2740.

 EUR/JPY - We have just seen the top of wave 1 from 94.10 to 104.59. We should now be looking for wave 2, which is expected to unfold over the next month and cause a correction of at least 422 pips.

 EUR/NZD - The break below 1.5904 and more importantly 1.5788 has told us that wave ii is still unfolding. Wave ii is an expanded flat correction and should ideally reach 1.5635 before we can expect wave iii higher to begin.

Crude Oil - Is headed for a test of the support-line at 82.88 and a break below here confirm a continuation down to at least 78.62 and likely even lower.