Elliott wave analysis of Crude Oil and NZD/USD

 Crude Oil.

We are currently seeing a sideways consolidation, which is most likely a wave 4 and once it's over we should see wave 5 move higher. As the minimum target for wave 5 I would look for 114.95, but I think it's more likely that we see a continuation higher towards 121.15. Only a break below 97.15 will invalidate further upside Progress.

NZD/USD

I quick followup on this cross as we have moved higher and because Paulina would like me to update it.

As long as important support at 0.8091 protects the downside we should be looking for a continuation higher towards 0.8250 where we will find the first cluster of resistance. However we could even see a move higher towards 0.8303 and its extreme higher yet towards 0.8360, but I think that is less likely.

However, once we break below important support at 0.8091 we know that wave C is over and a new impulsive decline towards 0.7716 and lower should be expected. But for now we just need this last move a Little higher towards 0.8250 before the downside pressure should begin to mount. 

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for September 16 - 2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 133.37

R2: 133.17

R1: 132.64

Current Spot: 132.13

S1: 131.63

S2: 131.17

S1: 130.98 

Technical Summary:

I'm still looking for a bottom for this red wave ii and the next impulsive rally higher towards 133.37 and higher towards 138.00. To confirm the bottom for red wave ii we need a break above 132.40 and more importantly a break above resistance at 132.64, that will confirm a new impulsive rally higher towards 133.37 on the way towards 138.00. However, as long as resistance at 132.64 protects the upside, we must stay flexible and allow for a deeper correction we we break below 131.63. A break below 131.63 will call for a move lower towards 131.37 and maybe even closer to 130.98, but that is less likely.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6485

R2: 1.6421

R1: 1.6364

Current Spot: 1.6297

S1: 1.6271

S2: 1.6227

S1: 1.6181 

Technical Summary:

We have now seen two attempts to break below 1.6247 and both of them has been rejected. However, we need a break above resistance at 1.6364 and more importantly we need a break above resistance at 1.6421 to confirm that the C-wave down from 1.7274 has finally come to an end and that the next impulsive rally higher has begun. That said, as long as resistance at 1.6421 protects the upside we must accept the possibility of a deeper correction towards 1.6117, but for that outcome we need a clear and sustained break below 1.6247.

 

Elliott wave analysis of Gold - Gold went over the edge....

Gold

Went over the edge and is in a clear impulsive decline. Short term I'm looking for resistance at 1,329 to protect the upside for the next decline towards at least 1,297.80 and possibly even lower towards 1,276.67, before the next correction sets in. However once we break below 1,272.85 breaks the next major target is at 1,180.20 on the way towards the 1,148 and likely even lower towards 1,080.

Elliott wave analysis of NZD/USD - Time for the next big decline?

Monthly

 

Daily

 

NZD/USD

Panos asked me whether I think that we could see a move higher towards 0.92 in this cross?

I don't think we will see a move towards 0.92. In my view we have seen a major A-B-C rally since the 0.3902 low in October 2000. Wave A went from 0.3902 to 0.7465, while wave B became a large expanded flat correction and ended at 0.4891 and finally we saw wave c move higher to 0.8843 in August 2011. Currently we are seeing a new major decline and it should be a question about time before we will break below important support at 0.7679, which will call for a continuation towards at least 0.7145 and likely even deeper towards 0.6566.

Short term a break below 0.8091 will be the first indication, that the next part of the major decline has begun.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for September 13 - 2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 133.37

R2: 132.80

R1: 132.57

Current Spot: 132.33

S1: 132.15

S2: 131.73

S3: 131.37

Technical Summary:

The correction from 133.37 has become deeper than first expected and by breaking below 131.84 I have had to change my count slightly. The change has only left us with an even more bullish 1-2/1-2 count and once wave three really takes over it should be a very powerful rally higher towards 138.00, but first we need to figure out is, what we can expect for the short term. For the short term I am looking for a minor correction towards the 132.15-132.24 area before the next rally higher. A break above 132.57 will confirm the rally higher towards 133.37 and higher towards 138.00. Only a break below 131.73 will delay the rally higher for a push low towards 131.37 before we move higher again. 

EUR/NZD

 

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6514

R2: 1.6452

R1: 1.6412

Current Spot: 1.6369

S1: 1.6315

S2: 1.6283

S3: 1.6247

Technical Summary:

With the break below important support at 1.6325 we knew, that the previous preferred count was incorrect and the alternative count, that I have been showing for the last few days has now become the preferred count. This count tells us, that the C-wave of a large expanding flat correction is still developing. The first target for this C wave is at 1.6247 and we could even see it lower towards 1.6117, where we find a cluster of support. In an expanded flat correction, the A and C wave normally relate to one another with some Fibonacci relationship. And the first comes in at 1.6247, where wave C will be 1.236 times longer than wave A. If we break clearly below 1.6247 the next target becomes 1.6117, where wave C will be 1.382 times longer than wave A.These slightly odd Fibonacci extension target are only used when we are in a correction. Looking at the internal structure of wave C a bottom near 1.6247 we fit the picture nicely, but we need to stay flexible.

To confirm that wave C has ended we need a break above 1.6515 and more importantly a break above 1.6565.



Elliott wave analysis of Gold - Gold is on the edge!

 Gold Weekly

Gold 8 Hourly

 

 

 

Gold

 

Is on the edge!

 

If gold moves just a Little lower  we have not alone broken below the minor uptrend-line from 1,180.20, but it will also trigger a Shoulder/Head/Shoulder top-formation calling for the next powerful decline to 1,180.20 and lower towards 1,148 and possibly even lower to 1,080 before the next correction sets in. 



Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for September 12 - 2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 133.81

R2: 133.24

R1: 132.80

Current Spot: 132.59

S1: 132.34

S2: 131.95

S3: 131.68

Technical Summary:

The correction from 133.37 has become slightly deeper than would have been ideal, but it has by no means destroyed the bullish outlook, only a break below 131.84 will question the rally from 129.89. However with a low at 132.34, just one pip below my second support, we should be ready for the next rally higher towards 133.81 and 134.48. Short term a break above 132.80 will be the first good indication that the next rally higher is developing, while a break above 133.24 confirms, that the correction is over and move higher towards 133.81 is ongoing.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6565

R2: 1.6503

R1: 1.6450

Current Spot: 1.6392

S1: 1.6325

S2: 1.6264

S1: 1.6225

Technical Summary:

This is exactly what makes correction difficult to handle. Second waves are allowed to correct all of the first wave, but can never ever break below the starting point of the first wave. With a low at 1.6335 we have seen an almost 100% retracement of wave i, so it is make or break it time. As long as support at 1.6325 protect the downside I will be looking for a break above 1.6452 and more importantly a break above 1.6565 that will confirm, that wave ii finally found its bottom and wave iii can take over for a very powerful rally. As you can see on the EWO indicator we now have the possibility of both a bullish hidden divergence and a normal bullish divergence and if these divergences is confirmed by the break above 1.6565 we should be looking for a very powerful rally higher. However the risk is of cause a break break below 1.6325, which shifts the picture to my alternate count and calls for a decline towards 1.6117 before we can expect a new move higher.