Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; NZD/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD; DJI; Apple and Gold

 EUR/USD - As expected we saw a break towards the upside for a rally towards my target at 1.2550. Short term I expect a shallow sideways consolidation before the last rally higher towards 1.2550. Could we see a move higher? Yes a clear break above 1.2550 would open up for a move higher towards 1.2713, but looking at red wave 2 (not shown on the chart) it was simple zig-zag that corrected 78.6% of red wave 1, therefore we should expect that red wave 4 only corrects 38.2% of red wave 3, which would be at 1.2550 before red wave 5 takes us below 1.2040.

 USD/JPY - Here we should soon see the last leg higher in red wave v towards 80.07 as the ideal target. A rally to 80.07 will mark the top of wave iii and should be followed by a shallow wave iv towards the 79.32 - 79.60 area and then the final leg higher in wave v and wave 1 of 2 towards 80.73, but lets see how things evolve.

 GBP/USD - With a test of 1.5804 yesterday my target is fulfilled, but looking at the smaller structure I do think that we should see one more rally to the upside. This last rally would most likely break slightly above my 1.5805 target, but it might not be by much. Once this rally is done we should see wave 3 take over for a decline below 1.5268 and longer term even below 1.3500.

 NZD/USD - I have changed my count slightly, but that does not change my longer term view, that we soon should see a more massive downside pressure towards 0.7843 in wave iii down. A break below support at 0.8060 will confirm the next leg lower.

 EUR/JPY - With the break above 98.68 there was no longer any doubt that a rally towards 99.42 was in the cards. Once we have seen the test of 99.42 we should see red wave 4 take over in a shallow correction towards the 98.53 and maybe even down to 97.98 before red wave 5 takes us up to 100.26.

 EUR/NZD - Should soon test resistance near 1.5500, but after a minor consolidation I'm looking for a continuation higher towards 1.5565 to end blue wave v and red wave iii. Would I be concerned if the correction from 1.5500 break below 1.5335 (the top of blue wave i). Not really, but it will change the short term count from a series of waves one's and two's to a leading diagonal and call for a deeper correction towards the 1.5076 - 1.5157 before the next rally takes over.

 Dow Jones Industrial Index - Found resistance at 13,330.76 just below the start of wave 1 at 13,338.66. I would like to see a break below minor support at 13,072 before declaring wave 2 over at 13,330.76, but I strongly believe we have seen the top already. If we have a top in place we also have a non-confirmation between the Dow Jones Industrial Index and S&P 500 as the S&P 500 made a new high above its April 2 - 2012 high at 1,422.38 (yesterdays high was at 1.426.68). However I think that the non-confirmation add value to my expectation of a top being in place, but I will of cause like to see some solid proof.

 Apple - Made it to 674.88 just 3 points above the top of my target-area. I strongly believe we have a top in place, the overthrow and quick return into the expanding diagonal adds confidence in this view, but we need a break below 627.75 to confirm the top. Even if we need one more new high above 674.88 it should not be able to make much progress, but I would not bet on the need for one more new high. Once the top is confirmed we should see a decline down close to 490.00

Gold - Has not done much the last couple of month. I still regard the rally from 1,548 as an ending diagonal and we should soon see renewed downside pressure. However as we have seen with DJI and The S&P 500 we also have a non-confirmation here between gold and silver. Silver has clearly broken above its early July highs, which gold has not, but if it does we could see a move higher towards 1,647, however it will take a break above 1,663.38 to invalidate the ending diagonal count and call for a continuation towards the 1,667 - 1,672 area. Any break below 1,609.50 will confirm the top and a new push towards strong support near 1,521.

Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD and Apple

 EUR/USD - I'm still looking for a move higher towards 1.2550 in wave c of Y. The price-action the last couple of days hasn't given us much clues, but as we continue to make higher lows I do favor an upside break above minor resistance at 1.2382 for a move closer to the ideal target at 1.2550.
Only a break below 1.2255 will delay the move towards 1.2550 for a deeper decline towards 1.2040 in the b-wave of a flat correction.

 EUR/JPY - The shown count is my favorite short term count and I'm still looking for a break above 98.40 for a move towards 99.42 in blue wave v and red wave 3. That said we should take note of the possible leading diagonal, which could be developing. If a leading diagonal is developing resistance at 98.68 will hold firm for a break below 97.47 for a deeper correction towards the 95.35 - 95.75 area for wave 2, before the more dynamic and powerful wave 3 takes over.

 EUR/NZD - I still think that blue wave ii should head a little to just below 1.5187 before the more dynamic and powerful wave iii takes over for a move higher towards resistance near 1.5500.
In the bigger picture a break above 1.5500 will confirm, that we saw an important bottom at 1.4968 and much higher levels should be seeing longer term.

Apple - The world most valuable company, made new all time highs yesterday. Should we be calling for a rally towards 1,000? I don't think so. In my view the top was seen at 643.88 and we are in an expanded flat correction. If this count is correct we should see a top in the 670.55 - 671.78 range for a very powerful wave C down towards support in the 500 - 504 range.
The positive message that this expanded flat correction is sending us is, that once this correction is over (is could become even more complex) we should expect a new rally to new highs, but first I think it's time to worry about the downside...  

Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; AUD/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD; DJI and Facebook

 EUR/USD - Failure to break above minor resistance at 1.2386 Friday, was a bit surprising, but as long as support at 1.2255 protects the downside I will be looking for wave c of "Y" up to the 1.2550 area. A break above 1.2386 will confirm the next part of the correction towards the ideal target near 1.2550.
A break below 1.2255 will call for the alternate scenario, which see a decline close to 1.2040 in a flat correction before the final rally higher towards 1.2550.

 USD/JPY - Has a nice dynamic look to the rally from 78.16 and after a minor correction towards the 79.25 - 79.40 area we should see the final red wave v towards the 79.83 - 80.19 area (ideally the target for red wave v will be found near 80.00), which will mark the end of wave iii and call for a shallow complex wave iv.

 GBP/USD - Here I'm still looking for one last rally towards 1.5805 in a pretty complex correction that will end wave 2 that began at 1.5268. Once wave 2 is over we should see the much more dynamic and powerful wave 3 down towards at least 1.4780.

 AUD/USD - Has ended it's X-leg from 0.9580. The X-leg stop at 1.0613 just 14 small pips from the ideal 1.0627 target I sat on August 6. and we should now see downward pressure in wave Z towards the 0.9650 - 0.9700 area. A break below 1.0320 confirms the decline.

 EUR/JPY - Is still looking impulsive in its structure and a break above 98.68 will confirm a move higher towards 99.50. The risk is, that resistance near 98.68 protects the upside for a break below 97.47, which will leave us with an leading diagonal and call for a correction towards the 95.35 - 95.70 area before the next impulsive rally higher sets in.

 EUR/NZD - Still lacks some real impulsive structure, but if my count is correct we are seeing a series of waves one's and two's, which should be followed by a much more powerful blue wave iii.
As long as minor resistance at 1.5434 protects the upside we could see blue wave ii to just below 1.5187 before the next powerful rally towards 1.5500.

 Dow Jones Industrial Index - The ending diagonal as wave c of Y continues to build. I'm looking for resistance at 13.318, but even if we manage to break above the May high at 13.338 it will not change my view, that a big decline should be seen pretty soon.
A break above 13.338 will change my count slightly, as wave 2 is not allowed to break above the start of wave 1 therefore a break above 13.338 will indicate that wave B from 10.404 is still ongoing, but with very limit upside potential.

Facebook - Continues to follow the expected path that I laid out on August 10 (see my post here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2012/08/facebook-monthely-close-basis-facebook.html)
As we close in on the ideal target near 17.01 one should consider buying Facebook as a rally back towards 33.44 is expected. A rally like that would represent a 96% gain if one is able to bay a 17.01.

Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; NZD/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD; VIX and DJI; TLT and Gold

 EUR/USD - Should soon break above minor resistance at 1.2386 for the next part of the rally towards 1.2443 and the ideal target at 1.2550 to end red wave 4.

 USD/JPY - Is well under way to it red wave iii target near 80.09, but we should soon see a test of  resistance near 80.62 and a break above here will open for a continuation towards strong resistance at 84.17

 GBP/USD - The correction since the end of wave 1 at 1.5340 has been messy and rather complex, but we are closing in on the final rise towards 1.5805 to end wave 2 and set the stage for wave 3 down towards at least 1.4172 and likely even lower. In the larger picture we should ultimately see a move below the end of wave [A] at 1.3499.

 NZD/USD - Went slightly higher than the ideal 0.8111 - 0.8117 target area, but with the test of 0.8124 we have most likely seen the end to red wave ii and should soon see a break below 0.8054 to confirm a new test of 0.8036 low towards the red wave iii target near 0.7911. Only a break above 0.8124 will delay the downside of a move towards 0.8160 before the downside takes over again.

 EUR/JPY - Is well under way towards the blue wave iii target near 99.41. However longer term I'm looking for a move towards strong resistance at 101.62 and higher. That said we should be aware of the possibility, that a leading diagonal from 94.09 could be building. If this is the case a break above 98.68 can't be allowed before a substantial correction towards 95.40 - 95.80 has been seen first. A break above 98.68 will eliminate the leading diagonal possibility.

EUR/NZD - Broke below support at 1.5197, but only for a slightly lower decline to 1.5187 and I'm now looking for a break above 1.5335 to confirm a continuation higher towards 1.5495 and even higher longer term.

VIX Index and Dow Jones Industrial Index - The VIX index is siting on long term strong support. It does not mean we can't break below it, but any break should be short lived. The market is simply becoming to complacent and we should be looking for a important top soon. Whether it will be at 13,338.66 or just above 13,381.70 really doesn't matter, what matters is that the upside is becoming extremely limited. A break below 13,146 will be the trigger for a much bigger decline.



 Facebook - Has made it to new lows. I'm still looking for a decline towards 17.20 before a big rally up to 33.43 can be expected. That said we are in the final part of the C-Wave decline from 33.43 and a bottom could be set before my ideal 17.20 target.
See my post from August 10, where the longer term picture of Facebooks price-action can be seen. Link here:  http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2012/08/facebook-monthely-close-basis-facebook.html

 TLT (Barclay's 20Y+ Bond fund) - The decline from 132.21 continues and the target for red wave iii is near 115.60, however we should see a decline to strong support near 109.69, which will likely represent a good buying opportunity.

Gold - Gold has been very borrowing. The choppy overlapping price-action since the 1,526.80 low clearly tells us, that we are in a complex correction, which will eventually resolve itself in a new downside pressure. However before we get to that point we should expect a little more upside towards 1,641 and maybe even closer to 1,666 before the downside pressure really takes over again.

Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD and NZD/USD

Sorry for yet another late update, but I have been very busy this last couple of days.

EUR/USD - Wave b became rather deep, but as it didn't break below the start of wave a at 1.2241 keeps the count alive and we should now see wave c towards 1.2550.

USD/JPY - The rally from 78.16 has all the ear-marks of a wave three rally. I'm looking for a continuation towards 80.09 as the first target, but longer term I'm looking much higher levels.

GBP/USD - Withe the break above 1.5728 we should expect a continuation towards the 1.5805 - 1.5815 area as an ending diagonal is developing. Once this ending diagonal is finished a new powerful decline in wave 3 should be expected.

NZD/USD - The wave ii correction became much smaller than expected. My preferred count is that we are making a series of waves one's and two's. I expect red wave ii to end near the 0.8109 - 0.8111 area for the next decline towards 0.7910.

Only a break above 0.8139 will invalidate my bearish count and call for a new rally towards 0.8160 before the downside pressure takes over again.

Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD and TLT

Sorry for the late and short update.

EUR/USD - The rally from 1.2241 to 1.2386 has been in five wave (wave a) indicating more upside to come, once the ongoing correction (wave b) is finished. Wave b has been a deep correction to 1.2263 but we should see wave c towards 1.2550 take over. A break above 1.2343 confirms that wave c is developing.

USD/JPY - The rally from 78.16 does look impulsive (five waves) too which indicates that more upside is to come. I'm looking for 80.09 as the next target.

GBP/USD - The question is whether wave 2 ended at 1.5768 or we need one last rally higher towards the 1.5805 - 1.5815 area before the next decline sets in.

EUR/JPY - The rally from 95.71 is clearly impulsive (in five waves), which indicates that more upside pressure will come, once blue wave ii is over (likely over at 96.52) and we should now look for a break above 97.42 to confirm, that blue wave iii towards 99.78 has begun.

EUR/NZD - I'm still looking for a rally towards 1.5445, but the reaction from 1.5334 has been relatively deep, however I would expect support at 1.5197 to protect the downside for renewed upside pressure towards 1.5445. However a break below 1.5197 will delay the upside for a test of 1.5164 before up.



TLT (Braclay's 20+ Bond fund) - The break below important support at 123.18 indicates that a depper decline is under way from the important top at 132.21. The next major target for this decline is at 109.84. 

Please see my post from July 25, where I call the top within a few points here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2012/07/tlt-barclays-20-bond-fund-major-top.html



USD/JPY is finally moving

USD/JPY - Please see my post from August 8 here first:  http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2012/08/elliott-wave-analysis-of-eurusd-usdjpy_8.htmlOn August 8.th I said, that wave i of 3 might be a leading diagonal and the price-action of the last couple of days seems to confirm this view. It's still early in wave iii, but if my count is correct we will see wave iii move much higher. I suspect we could see 79.92 tested for wave iii.
The rally of the 78.09 low tested on June 1 has been anything but strait forward, but this is typical wave 1 and 2 behavior.
As long as support at 78.16 protects the downside I will keep the bullish count and look for a break above 79.43 that would confirm, that the decline from 80.63 only was a correction.