Friday, July 27, 2012

10Y Spanish Yield - I was wrong...

10Y Spanish yields against 10Y German yields - Please see my post from July 23 here first:
http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2012/07/elliott-wave-analysis-of-10y-spanish.html.

I was wrong! As I'm always are when trying to outguess, which fundamental event would cause the financial markets to react positively or negatively. I guessed the trigger would be some kind of announcement after an emergency-meeting in EU (but they are of cause all occupied with the Olympics, so they don't have the time), instead it was ECBs Draghi how was out saying, that the ECB is unbeatable and they have unlimited powers...

I don't know if the market believes Draghi or just was a bit intimidated by him, but one thing is for sure. ECB doesn't not have unlimited powers. They might re-start the bond-buying scheme, but they can't hold every single Spanish or Italian bond. Just take a look at Greece, has ECB saved it? Not to my knowledge and they will not be able to save Spain nor Italy.

Expect the next rally in the 10Y Spanish yields within the next one - two weeks. The target is still 8.12%.

You Can see and hear what Mario Draghi said here: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/draghi-ecb-to-do-whatever-needed-to-preserve-euro-OF8PNB8EROSj1nDX9sZquw.html

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