EUR/USD - Finally we are seeing some action, not overwhelming but still. I'm looking for a break below support at 1.2460 and more importantly 1.2405 to confirm, that wave iii is under way for a decline to 1.2132.
The risk a break above resistance at 1.2627 that will delay the decline for a move towards 1.2787 - 1.2819 first.
EUR/JPY - Here we still need a break below 99.61 to confirm that wave iii down towards at least 96.72 and more likely 95.62 is well under way. As long as support at 99.61 isn't broken, the risk is a break above 100.80 and more importantly 101.39 that will delay the decline for a minor move higher towards 101.54 first.
EUR/NZD - We could well have seen the final long term bottom with the test of 1.5536 (just 3 small pips above the ideal target at 1.5533, but well into the target-zone between 1.5522 - 1.5547)
We should now be looking for a move above 1.5673 as first indication, that the bottom is in place, while a break above 1.5694 will confirm a move higher to 1.5807. However we should see much higher levels and because wave five extended we can give a qualified estimate of the first target-zone, which should be between 1.6244 - 1.6414.
Dow Jones Industrial Index - Is just a few point below its target-zone and risk is clearly turning to the downside again. A break below support at 12,795 will indicate that wave 2 is over and set 12,450 as the next target and a break below here will confirm that wave 3 is well under way.
Shanghai Composite - This stealth decline seems to ecape everybodys attention, but I think it's more important than most. China is clearly slowing!
We are on the way to 2,074 as the first possible target for wave iii. I would expect a minor new bottom near 2,186 for green wave v and red wave iii, but it should only be a pause before the decline towards 2,074.
German DAX - The big picture for the German DAX is not pretty at all. We have begun a new impulsive decline from the 7.194 top. Wave 1 ended at 5,914 and we are currently in wave 2, which might be over at 6,618 or slightly higher at 6,818, but once wave 2 is done the much more powerful wave 3 sets in.
The first long term target for this decline is 4,561, but it could easily evolve into something much more ugly.
Gold - If we didn't see the top at 1,624 on Monday we should just see one small new high just above 1,625 before the next serious decline sets in. I do think the power of the rally from 1,547 has most fooled, but if my count is correct it's only a C-wave and should be followed by a shape decline.
The risk is of cause a break above 1,633, which will invalidate my count and make me the fool...
However in the bigger picture the all important support is 1,520 only a break below here will really open up the downside.
Crude Oil - Has entered it's target-zone and the risk of a reversal to the downside has gone up considerably. However we must allow for a move towards 90.80 before wave iv is done and setting the stage for the next decline to at least 72.00.
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