Elliott wave anaylsis of GBP/USD - Two possible short term counts

GBP/USD - Today's price-action has change the short term count here slightly. There are two possible scenarios.
First scenario: Is that red wave ii has become an expanded flat correction which should end in the 1.5590 - 1.5635 target-zone (ideally near 1.5635).
Second scenario: Black wave 2 did not end at the 50% retracement target near 1.5784, but is still ongoing. wave a of the zig-zag correction went from 1.5265 to 1.5777 the wave b itself wave a zig-zag from 1.5777 down to 1.5390, from wave wave c of the zig-zag has begun towards an ideal target near 1.5905.

I don't really have a preferred scenario between the two. I do think they have a fifty-fifty percent chance of coming through, so we will have to be flexible. That said Scenario 2 gains the upper hand if we break clearly above 1.5635.