EUR/USD - We are hoovering just above the 1.2156 target for green wave v at the same time we can see the building of a clear divergence on the RSI-Indicator telling us, that a bottom is close by. Once we have green wave v/blue wave iii in place, it should be followed by a shallow but complex wave blue wave iv towards the 1.2322 - 1.2362 area.
GBP/USD - The big picture (upper chart) shows that the big B-Wave triangle ended in late April and we have seen the first wave down from 1.6301 to 1.5265 and wave two from 1.5265 to 1.5777 corrected almost exactly 50% of wave 1 and we are now in the early parts of wave 3 down, which ideally will take us down to 1.3063. This is the wave you will want to be positioned right in as will likely prove to be the most dynamic and powerful once it really gets away. You also should not be tempted to close your short position, just because the GBP will look extremely oversold, as you should only expect correction to be short lived and very shallow.
NZD/USD - I know only of one technical discipline, that can take you within two small pips of the target and that is
THE ELLIOTT WAVE PRINCIPLE. I will not try to tell you, that I always right, because I know I'm not, but then nobody is. What I'm trying to say is, that if you get the count right The Elliott Wave Principle can deliver targets that are more precise than any other technical discipline. I won't even talk about fundamental analysis as it will never be able to produce one single target...
In Yesterdays post I said that the red wave v target was at 0.7855 and we saw a low at 0.7857. If anyone can point me to one producing the same target without using The Elliott Wave Principle I would love to hear it.
Okay enough of that. Where do we go now? I expect black wave ii to take us into the 0.7965 - 0.8010 area, before black wave iii takes over for a break below 0.7857 and a decline towards 0.7658.
EUR/JPY - Has entered the target-area between 95.75 - 96.75 (the low has been 96.40), as long as minor resistance at 97.05 protects the upside I could see one last decline towards 96.11 (most likely target) before a shallow but complex wave iv correction takes over for a move towards the 98.00 - 98.13 area.
EUR/NZD - Is the bottom in place here? It's still to early to tell. We have seen a break above resistance at 1.5492 and more importantly we have seen a break above the channel resistance line, which is clearly telling us something new is under way soon. That said we could still see a slow motion decline closer to the ideal target-area between 1.5205 - 1.5245 as long as resistance 1.5492 isn't broken clearly, but a clear break above 1.5492 will open for a rally towards the 1.5803 - 1.5882 area.
Dow Jones Industrial Index: Still no break below important support at 12,450 but the declines from the 12,961 high does have and impulsive look to them, so a flat correction to 12,683 followed by a break below 12,450 would close the case a call for the next powerful decline towards 12,128.
At no point should we see a break back above resistance at 12,830 as that would call for one last rally to just above 12,961, but this not the preferred scenario.
Gold - Bottomed out within 4 points of the ideal target and we should now see a correction towards the 1,598 - 1,604 area in red wave ii setting the stage for red wave iii down. If this count is correct, then we should soon take out important support at 1,521 for a much deeper decline. If however support at 1,521 stays untouched we should see a new rally towards 1,645 and possibly even close to resistance at 1,700.
Crude Oil - I still favor, that wave iv ended with the test of 88.98 but we need more evidence in form of a break below support at 84.21 to add real confidence in this scenario and call for a decline towards 72.00 in wave v down.
A break above resistance at 86.47 will delay the downside pressure for a move towards 90.62 before down.
No comments:
Post a Comment