EUR/USD - Did we see the end of blue wave iv at 1.2313 yesterday? It's clearly a possibility, but we need a break below support at 1.2187 to confirm, that blue wave v is under way down towards 1.2105 or more likely towards 1.1985.
As long as support at 1.2187 holds firm we also need to accept the possibility of a break above resistance at 1.2313, which would call for a continuation towards the 1.2362 - 1.2404 area before blue wave v takes over.
NZD/USD - Even though nothing is given here yet, I do favor the top of wave ii being in place at 0.8004 and wave iii down is in its early start. A break below support at 0.7926 confirms that wave iii down have begun and call for a test of strong support at 0.7858.
Even if wave ii is still ongoing the upside potential is limited to 0.8018 before downside pressure takes over.
EUR/JPY - Wave iv could actually be over with the test of 97.37, but we need a break below support at 96.37 to confirm that wave v have taken over for the last decline towards the ideal target near 94.58.
However as long as support at 96.37 protects the downside we could see wave iv continuing towards the 97.96 target before wave v takes over.
EUR/NZD - Technicals is now more supportive of a bottom being in place at 1.5303, but we still need a break above resistance at 1.5505 to confirm the bottom and a call for a rally towards at least the 1.5808 - 1.5885 area.
Risk is a break below 1.5340 which will indicate a new test of 1.5303 and likely a continuation towards 1.5245 before the bottom is finally in place.
Dow Jones Industrial Index - We are still locked in the limbo-zone between 12,630 and 12,830. I slightly favor the break below 12,630, but we are taking odds of 50.25% against 49.75% . A break below 12,630 will call for a test of the strong support at 12,450, but a break below here we add considerable downside pressure.
However as long as support at 12,630 holds firm the risk is a break above 12,830, which will call for a possible move higher towards 13,029 before wave 2 is finished.
VIX Index - Is in the perfect position for wave 3 down to begin. The complacency displayed here once again raises the risk for powerful decline soon.
Shanghai Composite - Here we are now close to the ideal target at 2,189 for green wave v and we should expect a rebound in red wave iv towards 2,235 soon.
Gold - Just entered the expected target-area between 1,598 - 1,604 with a high at 1,599 but within a blink of an eye the floor disappeared and we saw a drop to 1,571 with in a couple of hours. This decline does have impulsive characters and displays some very nice wave relationships, which I will update in a post later today.
Even though the decline from 1,599 to 1,571 displays impulsive behavior there is a risk, that it's a c-wave correction and one more rally is needed. The only way to avoid one more rally is a direct break below 1,571, which will call for a decline to important support at 1,521 and below here gold is a totally new play.
Crude Oil - Made a new high as expected and we could still see Oil slightly higher, but we are close to the top now. It's only a question if we will see the top near 90.18 or need a slightly higher high near 90.87 before the top is in place for a break below 87.41 to confirm the top and a move down to strong support at 83.65 on the way to the ideal target near 72.00.
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